Tropics Showing Signs Of Awakening, Meteorological Fall Arrives

 

September 1st is the beginning of "Meteorological Fall", a period of transition from the brutal heat of Summer in the South to a delightful time of cold fronts & drier air.  The folks up north are already feeling chilly, and we can't wait for those October days where the highs stay in the 70s.  The reason for the change of seasons is the Earth's orbit around the Sun & the tilt of our axis that provides the northern Hemisphere longer days in the summer & longer nights in the Winter.  Grabbed this graphic off of AccuWeather's website that explains how much daylight is lost just in September.  Those shorter days are showing up in the temps up north.

Below freezing temps are showing up in northern Canada while most of the Great Lakes & Northeast are enjoying temps in the 70s.  It's coming, Gang.   We still might get a couple of days 90+, but the real heat of summer is over!  Unfortunately, when frontal boundaries get through us and over the Gulf, we need to pay attention to any spin-ups near home.  We have one such swirl over Florida today

There clearly is a spin along Florida's east coast, and if this low drifts eastward over the Gulf Stream in the next 1-2 days, something could develop.  The rest of the boundary over the Gulf has clusters of T-Storms, but no rotation.

Surface pressures are not falling, and no model develops anything, but more frontal boundaries are coming. That's because the upper pattern has a ridge over the West with a broad trough over the East

The disturbance over the Plains today will bring another weak front through us later this week, but it's not much of a front.

What we do see is more and more dew points in the 40s & 50s.  That's the good feel air and it's only a matter of time.  It's only a matter of time before the Tropics roar to life.  NHC is watching one area way out in the Atlantic for development & most models agree that it will become Gabrielle later this week.

That's so far out we need not worry, as it's likely to follow the track of the past 2 storms and make the turn to the north before threatening the U.S.  Closer to home in the Caribbean is a cluster of storms.

There appears to be two clusters of storms heading to the west.  One will cross Central America and emerge over the Pacific, while the other could drift into the western Caribbean.  Certainly, nothing is on the horizon this week, unless something develops over the Gulf, and that is not likely.  Despite nothing going on in the short term, I'm inviting you to give my new podcast a try at bobbreck.com.  It allows me to expand on my WVUE Facebook post.  The cost to subscribe is only $2/month or 7 cents a day.  You can go back and review any past podcast, like the one with David Bernard on Friday.

The beauty of the podcast is it's on your phone & IF you have to evacuate, it goes where you go. Give it a try.  Stay tuned!