Fat Lady Not Singing Yet, Great Fall Feel This Weekend, Jerry Struggling

 Those of you who have followed this blog over the years know the routine come October.  We say the hurricane season is over when the "Fat Lady" sings.  This song was used by the late Don Meredith on Monday Night Football to signal one team was so far behind, the game was essentially over.  The name "Fat Lady" is no longer politically correct, but Don used it because the final song in an Opera was usually sung by an overweight lady.  I was going to use her tonight until I saw the GFS model for Friday Oct. 24th.  it places a low in the Gulf south of Louisiana.  It's done that many times before this summer and it has always been wrong.

Frankly, even if it turns out to be right, the Oceanic Heat Content across the northern Gulf is way down.  IF something were to develop, it couldn't be very strong as the waters have cooled.

The bottom are the original cast for Monday Night Football.  Howard Cosell, Don Meredith & Frank Gifford.  I will wait one more week before declaring this season is over.

Tropical Storm Jerry is the circle with the dashed line a trough that will trigger a strong east coast low this weekend.  Jerry is struggling with wind shear as his center is exposed.

All the storms and bad weather are on the eastern side.  Jerry's track will brush the Leeward Islands, but the impacts will be minor.

Back over the Gulf, the upper trough is dragging down drier air making for a hostile environment for tropical development into next week.  The east coast storm's circulation will keep the dry air coming.  Mornings will feel great.  Daytime highs will still be warm, but not hot.

You can see the air behind this front is not cold except only over the Northeast.  But, look at the lower dew points.  That will allow the Northshore to drop into the 50s the next couple of mornings.

Hopefully, those of you who subscribe to my new podcast enjoyed Jim Cantore yesterday.  If you are not yet a subscriber, you can watch Jim by going to bobbreck.com.  Finally,

My son (Rob) sent me these pictures from the Albuquerque Balloon Festival that ends this weekend.   Some day I'd like to go see it.   Stay tuned!