I'm posting early so I can go to happy hour at Copeland Towers at 4 PM! The farce of predicting how many storms before the season continues. The predictions were generally 13-19, with all forecasters predicting an above-average season. They will reach those numbers because of modern satellite technology & not because of Global Warming. Look at today's example. I've circled the 3 areas NHC is watching. We begin with sub-Tropical Storm Karen, which was named overnight.
C'mon, look where it is. Why name it? It only skews the past records, making it look like storms are becoming more frequent. Check the satellite views.
Yes, she has a well-defined circulation, but where are any tropical storms? Compare that to Tropical Storm Jerry which is still struggling due to wind shear.
Quite a difference as the bright colors (storms) really stand out. Jerry's center remains exposed from those storms, so any increase in strength will be limited as he passes Bermuda. The main player this weekend is forming east of Jacksonville.
NHC isn't mentioning it since it's a hybrid cold-core system. But it will have many more land impacts than Karen.
The circulation around that low is driving the drier air all the way down to the Yucatan.
That will result in a great weekend here with plenty of sunshine and low humidity. Oh, remember the GFS having a storm in the Gulf in 2 weeks? Look at the latest model run.
Nothing, in fact, it brings down a strong cold front sweeping deep into the Gulf. I placed a call back to the "Fat Lady" to see if she's available early next week. "Turn out the lights, the party is over" for the northern Gulf. Yippee!!!
Get out and enjoy your weekend, as October is GREAT! In the 50s on North Shore this weekend! Stay tuned!
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