North Shore Flooding Possible, Severe Risk Remains Slim

My thinking hasn't changed from yesterday regarding the severe weather risk for SE LA/MS.  Heavy rainfall is likely, but without an upper disturbance to create a split in the jet stream, I don't see any tornado risk.  The main energy with the upper low over Colorado yesterday is now west of the Baja and will come over us by late Wednesday of next week bringing a higher risk for severe storms.

You can clearly see where SPC's greatest severe risk (Level 2 yellow) is today.  The main driver producing today's storms is a strong cold front that will lose upper support as it moves towards us.

There is a 20-30 degree cooldown behind this front along with much drier (dew points) air.  But this front will stall to our north with the heavier rainfall staying north of Lake Pontchartrain.  WPC's 2 day rain totals indicate just that.

Note the heaviest totals (2-3"+) extends from Houston & SW LA, across southern MS on over to Mobile Bay. If you live north of Lake Pontchartrain, and plan on going out this evening, pay attention to the FOX 8 Weather App to see if training develops with any storms.  Right now at 3 PM, most of the action is along the frontal boundary.  However, several clusters of storms have popped up during daytime heating.

Many storms have lots of lightning so you need to use common sense if you hear thunder.  Lightning is a deadly killer and happens with little warning.  We are in the warm air sector and it feels very summer-ish outside.

Looking at the seven day forecast, the time change is tomorrow morning , but focus on the next front coming next week.  There is a cool down coming that will bring back sweaters and jackets.  Ahead of it, there could be a stronger severe risk.

BEFORE you go to sleep tonight, set those clocks ahead one hour. Stay tuned!