With the start of the 2026 Hurricane season only 4 days away, the upper flow pattern almost guarantees we will not have a name storm in the next 7-10 days. Although we have abundant tropical low level moisture in place with clusters (lime green circles) of T-Storms, there is a deep upper trough that is creating plenty of wind shear.
Upper lows create a difficult/hostile environment for tropical development. What has changed over the past several days is the boundary of tropical moisture has shifted from us to the eastern Gulf. As the Bermuda high backs off, this should allow some much needed rainfall for south Florida.
You can see how the WPC's 7 day rain totals (bottom graphic) has the heaviest rainfall (4-7"+) across most of drought stricken Florida. For us, our forecasting challenge will be the movement of upper lows to our west.
Will the current cluster of T-storms along the Texas coast fizzle or hold together? I'm thinking they will weaken, but the FOX 8 extended favors another day of above normal showers.
I'm seeing a trend back to basic summer time where the spotty daytime heating showers give us 30-50% coverage. We have jumped into the top ten wettest Mays with 9.22" at MSY.
I'm thinking we should have no problem cracking the top 5 as we only need less than an inch in the next 4 days. Finally,
My next podcast airs Thursday and is about my vacation to New Mexico to see my older sons. To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up. We'll be focusing on the Tropics & hurricanes during the next several months as my podcasts will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE Face Book blog posts. You can watch your local favorite weathercaster repeat what NHC tells them, or you can sign up to hear what does Bob think based on nearly 50 years of forecasting experience. Nobody has my knowledge/credentials plus experience that has earned your trust and it's why Ch. 8 has me as their Hurricane Consultant for another summer. At $2/month, my podcast is a no brainer. Stay tuned!
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