On their 10 AM advisory, NHC upgraded PTC # 1 to Tropical Storm Arthur based on offshore buoy data having winds gusting to 50 knots plus. However, satellite views clearly show the heavy storms are far removed from the center over the Gulf with Arthurs center exposed with no storms around it Here the NHC official Track.
The yellow arrow points out where the center of rotation is, hugging the Texas coast. However, the Color Infrared and radar views have the storms 150+ miles away due to the strong WSW upper wind shear.
My thinking is we will see a split in the tropical moisture plume with the storms down over the Gulf heading eastward with some storms closer to Arthur's center developing later today and moving inland to our west as the WPC's rainfall map suggests.
As you can see, this would leave the areas south of Lake Pontchartrain with only 1-2". It's the North Shore that gets the drenching, but with lower totals (5-10") than predicted yesterday.
I will have my next podcast after the NHC's 4 pm advisory. If you want to hear how I am different than what the NWS/NHC forecast is, go to bobbreck.com and sign up. Will the bark from Arthur be worse than his bite? Stay tuned!
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