Since this is mainly a hurricane post during the summer, we usually just watch & wait to see if tropical activity develops. CSU last week decreased the number of named storms (9) for this season based on a strong El Nino developing in the eastern Pacific creating strong upper wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. Our main computer models (Canadian, Euro, GFS) are NOT seeing any tropical activity for the next 10-14 days. However, several AI models hint at something developing over the NE Gulf NEXT week. FOX Weather has been all over this.
They even interviewed a Hurricane expert from Miami.
TWC (The Weather Channel) has been much less dramatic (perhaps because Jim Cantore is on vacation?) and NHC isn't mentioning anything in their daily outlooks just yet. I will do a podcast tomorrow giving my take as to whether we should be concerned or not, along with the WHYS of those opinions. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.
My podcast costs you $2/month and you can view/listen to them anytime you want on your phone or computer. Back when I began my career in Tampa in 1971, my mentor (Late Roy Leep) would always refer to areas of "Disturbed Weather" in the Tropics. We have two such areas today.
We all know the westerly upper shear along with the African Dust layer will keep the MDR mostly quiet this year. So we look closer in to find clusters of T-Storms. The next named storm will likely be in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) later this week.
It is showing signs of rotation, but T-Storms remain somewhat disorganized. That will change and his name will be Douglas. Back across the Southeast & northern Gulf is a large area of "Disturbed Weather".
North of this boundary is lots of hot & dry air with temps topping 100 in spots. The challenge for forecasters is where will the heavy flooding rains develop during the next 2 days? WPC's 7 day rainfall graphic indicates NOT over us with the bullseye over the Rio Grande to our west and off the Florida coast to our east.
In fact, it doesn't give us very much. However, we all know in the summer, slow moving storms can drop 2-4" in an hour so don't think we have no flood risks.
You can see what the clouds and rains are doing as temps farther to the north are hotter in the sunshine.
We had some lighter showers around this morning, but SE LA/MS is mostly dry this afternoon. NWS still has us in a level 2 flood risk through tonight.
Until this large area of "disturbed weather" along the northern Gulf Coast dissipates or moves away, let's pay attention to your FOX 8 Weather APP radar to make sure no heavy storms are around.
Rain chances begin to decrease tomorrow and for the rest of this week. Don't forget to go to tarponrodeo.org and register for this year's Rodeo July 23-26th.
By registering, you'll get a chance for the $10,000 grand prize and you don't have to fish or come down to Grand Isle. Also, don't forget my next podcast is Tuesday afternoon so go sign up at bobbreck.com. Stay tuned!
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