The 4th named storm of the 2026 season, Tropical Storm Dolly, is racing across the central Atlantic with little change in strength. Most models bring her towards the northern Virgin Islands late this weekend & weaken her to an open wave due to strong SW upper wind shear. Her low level circulation is well defined, but she remains a lopsided system.
There has been a burst of T-Storms closer to her center this afternoon, but she faces challenges farther to the west.
I could find only one model (Canadian) that redevelops Dolly early next week that could threaten Florida. The Canadian is not one of the more reliable models that NHC puts much faith in.
To me, of more concern is the recent model runs that indicate a small circulation might form along the northern Gulf late this weekend. Right now, I can find several low level swirls all over land.
NHC isn't listing any areas for possible development, but I'll be watching these small swirls if any of them drift out over the warm waters of the Gulf. The MJO is drifting towards Phase 7, which still is not the favorable (rising air) phase for our part of the world. IF something were to form, I'll have a special podcast either Friday or Saturday. You have to become a subscriber to see & hear what I think.
I appreciate the hundreds of you who have renewed for another year. Check your credit card statement to see if you have renewed. Some of you have cards that have expired and will need to re-subscribe on your new card. There are many weeks left before we're out of danger for this season. Go sign up today. Stay tuned!
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