Way back in April when the first preseason predictions for the 2026 hurricane season came out, the researchers were saying, with an increasing El Nino coming on, tropical activity would be up in the Pacific Basins and down in the Atlantic Basin. Kudos to those early predictions as the central & eastern Pacific have seen 12 named storms while the Atlantic has seen only 4 very weak storms. The satellite view tells the story.
While the Pacific has one Typhoon (orange), 3 Tropical storms (green) and 3 tropical depressions (purple), the Atlantic has just the remnants of Dolly.
What a different tale of two Oceans. The Atlantic is essentially dead due to all the dry air and upper lows.
NHC downgraded Tropical Storm Dolly to just a remnant low or open tropical wave at 10 AM based on satellite & buoy information. However, Dolly has made a comeback this PM.
Look at these two views 5 hours apart.
So the question is, will NHC reverse course and upgrade Dolly back to a Tropical Storm? My guess is no, at least in the short term unless the satellite information shows continuing organization. What I find interesting is two models keep what's left of Dolly's DNA heading towards Florida and into the Gulf for next week. 1st view is the Canadian valid for next Thursday.
They bring Dolly into south Florida before turning her back to the NNE. The GFS is different.
It takes what's left of Dolly westward well south of us into south Texas. The Euro sees nothing so that far out, I'm not reading much into any solution. Of more concern is a close in development that could bring significant rains here for this Sunday and next Monday. I mentioned the lows that were inland yesterday. One swirl has now moved into the northern Gulf south of Pensacola.
The upper Heat Dome over the west is expected to shift eastward north of us. That would stop the northern Gulf low from moving NNE and start drifting back to the west. That was shown on both Zack & Grace's FOX 8 programs this morning.
Could we have another Bertha type system for next week? Maybe. NHC is not highlighting this area and no model develops anything either. Since we are not in MJO phases 8 or 1, and development would be slow and limited. Still, I want you to pay attention for a "home grown system".
To learn more about any northern Gulf development this weekend, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber. Enjoy the final weekend of August and stay tuned!
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