Fox Weather Keeps Hinting Gulf development, Some Models Place Storm in Gulf

What I like about watching the FOX Weather Channel is how they don't wait for NHC to spoon feed them information.  Instead, they examine satellite loops and models and express their opinion regarding what they see.  For two days, they have been mentioning an upper low will move across Florida this weekend and enter the Gulf for next week. I've talked in past post about getting another tropical threat along the northern Gulf will come from a close in development.  Let's look at the FOX Weather graphics.

If this solution verifies, we'll stay on the dry side of this low through this weekend.  That Heat dome could force the low to drift farther down over the hottest waters of the Gulf early next week.

Most computer models are NOT developing anything.  However, The GFS & GFS AI models do place a storm in the Gulf for the following week. The GFS on top is valid for 9-25 .

The GFS AI model has a system just south of our coastline valid for Oct. 1st, two weeks away.  We all know how badly the GFS model is beyond 5-7 days.  Still, since the MJO is heading into phases 8 & 1 (favorable rising air), we should not just ignore that model. 

If you are a subscriber to my podcast, we explained the MJO weeks ago.

Tomorrow's podcast will focus on possible Gulf development the last week in September.  To see & hear what I think, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com for $2/month.  Subscribing to my Facebook post does NOT give you access to my podcast.  You must go to bobbreck.com.

Right now, all NHC is talking about is a weak low east of Bermuda.

I'm more concerned about the yellow circle that could get into the Gulf.  Models keep 98-L nearly stationary for the next 4-5 days.

The Google AI model even makes 98-L a hurricane, but as you can see, it's not our threat.

There are no signs that the upper heat Dome will move through this weekend.

So until we start getting some real cold fronts, I will not call the "Fat Lady" into singing for another 3-4 weeks.  Go sign up to my podcast to learn about what I'm thinking that NHC isn't talking about just yet.  Stay tuned!