FOX Weather Pushing Weekend Gulf Low, NHC Sees Only Atlantic Low

 Yesterday FOX Weather was really pushing development of low pressure in the central Gulf.  This was based on the Google "Deep Mind" AI model.  Today that model has backed off from any formation, but FOX Weather is still talking about possible development in the Gulf, not based on any satellite features, but mainly on the spin in the "available moisture" loops.

So what FOX Weather (NOT FOX 8) is looking at are model solutions.  Let me show you what I see.

There is an old frontal boundary drifting down the East Coast and maybe they believe something will "spin up" along that boundary.  I do see an upper low north of Haiti & the Dominican Republic.  Is that the spin the models see?  I will go into greater details on this week's Bob Breck podcast coming out on Thursday.

You must sign up for $2/month to gain access to my podcast.  It allows me to go into greater details than what our FOX 8 weather programs (3-4 minutes) can give you.  Typical podcasts run 15-20 minutes plus.  If you're a weather geek or just want to feel safer hearing what I think, go sign up.  NHC is hanging on to a disturbance east of Bermuda.

All the AI models keep this disturbance well into the Atlantic off the East coast.  It's in a region of lower shear, but all around it is a hostile environment.  In fact, all of the Tropics continues with high upper level wind shear.

IF we are to see another northern Gulf tropical threat this year, it will have to come from something developing in the Gulf.  Nothing indicates that happening in the short term.  What we want are for cold fronts to start coming. That is happening across the northern Rockies, but a Heat Dome is blocking any southward movement.

So without any fronts, we still need to pay attention to the Gulf as water temps are 85-88.

 

I don't see any disturbance now that has any potential to get into the Gulf.  However, the MJO is going into the Favorable (rising air) phases (8 & 1) so don't be surprised if the folks at FOX Weather are on to something for early next week.  More of my ideas coming up on Thursday's podcast.  Go to bobbreck.com to become a subscriber.  Stay tuned!