El Nino Winter Signature, Few Late Week Showers, New Podcast

 If you watch the network News Programs or any of the weather channels, they have featured heavy rainfall creating flooding conditions across parts of the Rockies.  While most of the eastern states enjoyed a wonderful Fall weekend, much of the Western states were cold & wet.  Why?  It's all about the upper air features that drive surface systems.  A persistent upper trough is over the West with signs that the "Hawaiian Pineapple Express" (Yellow circle) is about to begin.

Notice how chilly it is out there compared to locations south of the frontal boundary.  The current upper pattern will not allow that cold air to spread down to us in the short term (7-10 days).

But notice how that changes in the next 2 weeks.  On top is today followed by the forecast for Nov. 11th on the bottom.

Wow!  That's quite A FLIP-FLOP with the western trough shifting to the Great Lakes and Southeast.  That will make us significantly colder for November IF that prediction proves correct.  We shall see. For the rest of this week, a slow moving cold front will bring much needed rainfall to many states.

Yes, those blue colors over the Dakotas is snow falling.  This front will struggle to reach us and my old colleague, Jeff Baskin, coined the phrase..."When in drought, leave it (rain chances) out".  My gut tells me this frontal boundary will get close, but stall out/wash out north and west of us this weekend.  We certainly could us some good soakers, but I wouldn't bet the house that will happen.

Low level easterlies are increasing surface moisture, but the real rains are back to our west.  

I would not get too excited about the 40% rain chances on Saturday.  That is more for areas (BTR, North Shore) to our north and west.  Unless the front reaches us, most of us will stay dry.  Finally...

This week's podcast will be about Orange Beach, Alabama and how they survived Hurricane Isaias with little impacts.  To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  One of my future podcasts will be my November 30th wedding to Valerie Adams aboard the NCL Breakaway on a cruise to Belize.  You could join us on the cruise, OR become a subscriber for $2/month.  We will have one podcast of the actual wedding ceremony with others about the various ports & excursions along the way.  Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30th, but the party for us is just beginning and you can follow it into December.  Come join the fun.  Stay tuned!