Isaias Coming To Gulf? NHC Increases Chances, Grief Support Monday, Albuquerque Balloon Fest

For the past several days, FOX Weather has been highlighting the possibility for tropical development in the SW Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary.  Last night NHC also began to highlight that area giving it a 20% chance for development.  There latest Outlook now has the chances up to 40% by late this week.

Right now, the weak cold front is just to our north waiting for a secondary surge of cooler air to get it down over the Gulf.

We have been caught under this slow moving boundary that has causes general rain totals of 2-3" the past two days. The Water Vapor has an upper low over the southern gulf drifting westward into Mexico.

Two upper disturbances farther to our north should be enough to push the cold front offshore drying us out for the first part of this week.  The WPC 7 day rain total indicates just that. Yesterday's forecast is on top, followed by today's forecast.

It's not a great shift southward, but it is a shift.  Now if the front is in the Gulf and the upper low is gone, then we have conditions that will promote tropical development along the western end of this front.  Many models now show that happening.  Let's begin with the often wrong GFS with the top valid for Friday PM, followed by Saturday midday and Sunday.

Normally, I would just "blow off" the GFS solution.  However, look at the Euro AI & GFS AI models with the Euro on top.

When models start to come into agreement, we need to pay attention.  IF anything starts to develop this week, I will begin doing daily podcasts that will expand on my Facebook post.  To have access to those podcasts, you need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

The cost is only $2/month, but you'll receive my opinions and not just what the NHC discussions are saying.  What are you waiting for?  Go become a subscriber and have the peace of mind that will lessen your anxiety and allow you to sleep better.  Another project I'm involved in is Grief Support.

As many of you know, I moved into Copeland Tower last December and it has been the best decision for me as I met my Fiancée Valerie.  Since I was dismissed from St. Catherine's Grief support after 7 years, I started my own Grief Support Coffee at CTL. We use the same Journal books that are provided by the Al Copeland Foundation and the coffee is free. The next meeting is Monday (Oct. 5th) in room 825 on the Hotel side.  If you or someone you know is struggling with the loss of a loved one, you may find comfort hearing how many others are coping.  Come join me as I celebrate my 79th Birthday with some coffee and baked goods.  Hope to see you there. Finally, The Albuquerque balloon festival is this weekend. Look at these pictures provided by my son Rob.

Taking a balloon ride is on my bucket list and so is doing a zip line ride.  Note, not all the balloons are similar.

As you can see by the crowds, this is a HUGE event for the Albuquerque area.  Maybe it's something to do for my 80th B-day?  Stay tuned!