I'm still at Orange Beach enjoying my Birthday weekend even though Tropical Storm Isaias is churning & strengthening in the SW Gulf, While I await the 10 am advisory, this is what we know from last night.
Drier air has pushed the frontal boundary farther offshore giving Orange Beach some filtered sunshine..
Red flags are already up due to the likelihood for increasing rip currents. Here's the 4 AM track from NHC
Clearly, NHC has shifted the cone to the east with NOLA no longer in it, Why did that happen? Look at the current wind shear that has sagged down across the northern Gulf, Plus, most spaghetti models shifted to the right.
That eastward trend can be seen in the difference of the centerline track from last night to this morning,
That's a pretty significant shift from west of Mobile Bay to East of the Bay. Right now, Orange Beach is the Bullseye for greatest impacts, but that will change as I believe the westerly shear will keep turning it farther to the east. Here's the 10 am update from NHC.
The centerline track has shifted farther to the east, lessening impacts for NOLA and the MS. coast. The centerline was over Orange Beach. The new forecast nudges it closer to Pensacola.
Over time, I expect Isaias to head to the old frontal boundary, taking his main impacts east of Destin over to Panama City. You should be aware NHC brings Isaias to a strong Cat 2 Hurricane, and he easily could reach Cat. 3. Wind shear at landfall will weaken him, but this will bring significant impacts to many east of Mobile Bay. I will have a podcast this afternoon for all my subscribers explaining what could change, so go to bobbreck.com and sign up. It's only $2/month and greatly expands on this free FB Post. You'll see why this is NOT a storm for South LA/MS. I'll see all my subscribers then. Stay tuned!
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