Slim Rain Chances This Weekend, Last Rains Oct. 3-4th, Next Podcast Thursday

There was a story in today's Advocate/Times-Picayune that was the classic example of bad luck.  A Louisiana couple decided to have a destination wedding on Grand Isle on Oct. 3rd. Sure enough, those were the only two days it rained this month so far.

It's a really cute story and all ended well even though it was wet.  After 23 dry days, we need some rain.  I'm not as convinced as the local broadcasters are (60% chance) for showers this Saturday on Halloween.  Here's why.

As I mentioned yesterday, the sub-tropical active jet stream is just starting to take shape.  I've outlined the disturbances in yellow with the main flow in blue.  The stronger systems are west of California and over the northern Rockies.  There are no fronts/triggers over the southern states.

The current showers over Texas are associated with a weakening upper disturbance.  Another weak disturbance will approach us on Saturday bringing a slight chance for a few stray showers.  Remember, when in drought, leave it out.  A stronger front will arrive late NEXT Tuesday giving us a better chance for rain.

Note that San Antonio & Dallas are still 80+.  Until we get a front moving through, I'm not getting excited about rain chances.

I think 20-30% this weekend seems more reasonable, meaning most of us stay dry.  Next Tuesday's front might bring 60-70% chances, but even then, that might be too high.  We will finish October way too warm. Finally, my next podcast will feature my trip to Orange Beach after Hurricane Isaias.  Coming up in early December will be my wedding podcast.  To see & hear both of them, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  Stay tuned!