While I'm awaiting the latest from the NHC, it's apparent that whatever is trying to form over the eastern Gulf and Florida is having a difficult time. There is a weak SURFACE circulation just off of Cape Kennedy while the well defined UPPER low is west of Ft. Myers. Current thinking is the upper low will be the one to take over and work its way down to the surface by Thursday morning. That would not be good for us as any westward movement would take it over the "LOOP CURRENT" (Warmest waters) and likely allow it to develop into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Again, some models bring the system to us while others don't. Once a true center forms, I'll feel a lot more confident in buying into the model data.
So many people are speculating/scaring people to death. I won't do that. If a storm does form and goes to our west or near us, it will be the first test of our levees since Katrina. Whatever develops is not likely to be much stronger than a Cat. 1 hurricane so the levees should be able to handle a 6-10 foot surge. If whatever forms heads to our east (BIX,MOB,PAM), we'll see very little from it as we would remain on the weak side of the storm. Bottom line...NOTHING has formed yet. If NHC upgrades system, I'll have a special tropical update.
Bob
1 comment:
I think a lot of people are freaking out about this one because it seems to be forming the same place Katrina did. I also think this is the most scared people have been about something that is not even a storm yet.
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