The Model Shuffle...

There are those who believe that computer models are 90% correct (climate modelers), but I have a hard time giving much faith to the short term(5 days) models because they flip-flop so often...at least in the early development of a tropical system. Once we have a full blown storm, the models get more accurate since they have a true initialization point. So it is tonight that the models have shifted the new track of whatever forms much farther to our west along the Louisiana Coast from Lafayette to Lake Charles. If this trend continues, the next run might move them into Texas. Bottom line, any development will be slow due to the presence of an UPPER low, however, the system will be moving over the warmest waters of the Gulf (Loop current) tomorrow so I'll keep you posted if any surface low gets going. It may be that all we'll see is an open wave of low pressure move thru on Thursday bringing us some much needed rainfall. Until "it" develops, I don't want anyone to over react to something that might not give us much impact at all.