Sunday, July 20, 2008
Dolly Named...heading toward Yucatan
The season's 4th named storm, Dolly, has developed over the Western Caribbean. It formed within a strong tropical wave that has remained intact for almost a week. The projected path brings Dolly over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight & early on Monday. According to the NHC, it should emerge over the extreme southern Gulf and head towards Mexico just south of Brownsville. If that is the case, we will not have to worry about Dolly. However, in the past 100+ years there have been 2 storms (Cat 2 1916 & T. S. 1931) that were on similar paths like Dolly, but made sharp turns to the north as they emerged off the Yucatan. All computer guidance indicate no such turn, but we should pay attention for the next 24 hours to see that Dolly continues moving WNW and doesn't make a northward turn. Will update later this evening.
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12 comments:
This happened quickly, but you called it earlier.Caveman are you awake???????
What's steering this storm towards northern Mexico and/or southern Texas? What's the chances of this thing taking a drastic turn towards us? Just nervous. Looking forward to a nice Tarpon Rodeo, not a "Dolly Rodeo!" Thanks!
"Our next thing to watch is a strong wave with a circulation about 2 1/2 days east of Barbados & the Leeward Islands. It is in an area of low wind shear but also heading into some very dry air that should prohibit any rapid development. Computer models bring it into the Caribbean later this week where Westerly wind shear remains rather strong. I would be surprised to see this system survive such a hostile environment." - Bob Breck
Well it is now Tropical Storm Dolly!
Wrong as usuall on tropical events.
Beans you really didn't help him out much with that comment. I am awake.
Just Checking!
Beans don't you feel stupid now?
I think Caveman is just looking to disagree and insult anything Bob posts here. I also think the quoted forecast from last week is dead on and considering Dolly was just a wave for so long illustrates that fact. When I see a potential storm threat, I come here to get real answers and have not been let down. Maybe Caveman should switch over to the weather channel where Heidi can tell him it's all his fault for running the AC and driving a car. Caveman obviously doesn't understand weather forecasting and maybe he should just pay attention to the boobs standing in the blowing rain on a beach somewhere.
Not even a little bit!!
"I also think the quoted forecast from last week is dead on and considering Dolly was just a wave for so long illustrates that fact." - El Rubio You guys really are brain washed. Bob was WAY off on ALL of last years hurricane's of which exploded into some of the highest ever recorded strengths and winds. Ole Dolly was forecasted by him to not even survive as a tropical wave! Bob loves to find faults in other networks stations forcasts or those put out by NHC but he has been totally wrong on his own tropical forecasting which is way out of his league or expertise. Don't even bring up the ole global warming issue.
It's hot today.
The NHC and other stations routinely over-hype the slightest threat. Check the NHC's nect big threat that hasn't even passed into the Atlantic yet. I think Caveman has some personal issues with the author of this blog and sees what he wants to see in Bob's posts. Bob said he would be surprised if the wave that became Dolly would survive. It survived and I guess that surprised Bob. It didn't do what computer models and 30+ years experience say it should do. With something so heavily studied as tropical weather, how can we really say that we know what the climate is going to be like in 50, 100 or 500 years? Oh, I brought up that Global Warming thing.
LOL The NHC simply reports the low coming off of Africa, not over-hyping it at all. Bob was wrong big on Dolly just as he was for EVERY single hurricane last year that exploded into some of the strongest ever recorded storms. Bob likes to knock everysingle expert, TV station, Federal Gov't agency etc etc yet he is totally incorrect on just about all the tropical weather! Facts are facts...
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