After slowing down and wobbling closer to the Louisiana coast yesterday evening, Edouard accelerated after midnight heading to the upper Texas coast about 30 miles north of Houston/Galveston early this morning. The nortward jog brought his rain shield farther into Louisiana giving the Southwestern part of our state a good soaking. Since Edouard's forward movement increased to 12-15 mph, rain totals will not be excessive. I was pleased to see the NHC not make Edouard a hurricane thereby everybody's hurricane insurance deductible didn't kick in. Once again we watched a rather well behaved storm. It's been a long time since we've seen a storm make a loop or make a radical change in direction. Hope that trend continues.
It appears another East Coast trough will bring a new cool front into or near the Northern Gulf over the weekend. After how Edouard formed, we'll have to keep close tabs on that happening again.
7 comments:
"I was pleased to see the NHC not make Edouard a hurricane thereby everybody's hurricane insurance deductible didn't kick in." NHC does not make their forecasts around homeowners insurance policies, if Edouard had the data to support an upgrade to a hurricane then the NHC would have done just that but Edouard did not. geese whizzz Won't matter too much in the future anyway because Tropical Storms will be written into policies at some point. I wish Edouard would have caused major flooding in and around New Orleans just to show how many morons have still not purchased flood insurance and then blame the gov't for not making them buy it...
Good point Caveman. Anyone who lives south of I-12 should have flood insurance...end of story. My point regarding NHC not calling Edouard a hurricane goes back to what former NHC Director Neil Frank said last year..." When I was Director, we would not have named so many storms." Sure technology is much better & more precise now, but if a storm is almost on the coast, the only purpose served by upgrading it to a hurricane is helping the insurance companies reduce their payouts. You obviously are for big business and/or work for an insurance company?
"I was pleased to see the NHC not make Edouard a hurricane thereby everybody's hurricane insurance deductible didn't kick in." Are you saying if Edouard did fit the critiera to be upgraded to a Cat 1 storm that the NHC should have fudged their data in order to help out coastal residents on their insurance deductibles? I don't think nor should the NHC take that in consideration when forecasting and upgrading tropical storms, I believe part of their mission is to help protect life and property and not issuing a hurricane warning when the storm is a hurricane would be professionally irespondsible. Of course the OLD NHC director would not have named as many storms, technology was not there back in his days and if it was you prob would have seen many more named storms instead of guessing on their strength. A meteorologist of all people calling on the NHC not to upgrade a storm if it should be just to help out homeowners on their insurance policy is pretty sad.
Caveman, you again miss my point. 1st, you didn't answer the question...who do you work for? 2nd, I didn't say NHC should ignore data, but rather I agree with Dr. Frank who feels they are too quick to pull the trigger on upgrading storms. 3rd, being more conservative/cautious would not make them "professionally irresponsible". 4th, Looking out for the welfare of my viewers is my job. If NHC does something to financially harm them, then I feel responsible to point that out and I have to new NHC Director Bill Read and several of their Hurricane Specialists. If you find that "sad", sorry, that's why there are 4 TV stations in this market.
1) Don't work for insurance company, with that said why shouldn't homeowners living in high risk areas for Hurricanes not pay more? If they didn't have hurricane deductibles written into policy's then the entire state would have much higher rates to offset the risk that the homeowners living on the coast put the insurer at. Makes sense to make those living on the coast that may experience high damage to pay it.
2) If you say NHC shouldn't ignore data then what is wrong with upgrading the storm no matter where it is? Last year you accused them of "fudging" data. How can they be too quick to pull the trigger? If say the 10pm advisory radar, bouy, recon etc. data has the storm a sustained winds of 75mph why not upgrade it?
3) Then NHC I assume is very cautious/conservative with the nation watching them. I doubt the upgrade storms or data just for the fun of it.
4) What could the NHC possibly do to fiancially harm your viewers? Facts are facts. Great look out for your viewers welfare but report the facts not your assumptions, that is reporting. The other stations are boring.
I think that the NHC has jumped to upgrading storms early. I forget the storm that was changed recently as it went inland and there appeared to be no measured data to support the upgrade. They often extrapolate the surface winds based upon the flight level wind and pressure.
This is a quote from [url="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml"]Eyewall Wind Profiles[/url]
"One of the more difficult problems for operational tropical cyclone forecasters is the assessment of the cyclone's maximum sustained surface wind. Even when aircraft reconnaissance data are available, these are typically obtained from the 700 mb (10,000 ft) level; from these flight-level observations, the forecaster is left to estimate the surface winds. Based on comparisons of flight-level and buoy data, Powell and Black (1990) recommended that a ratio of 63%-73% be used to reduce reconnaissance flight-level wind observations. While operational practices at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have varied over time, in recent years surface winds have typically been taken to be 80%-90% of the flight-level wind. In view of studies such as Powell and Black, use of these relatively high ratios has periodically resulted in criticism of NHC intensity estimates."
They should err on the conservative side and not the other way around, especially when it stands to affect individuals financially.
Again why should a homeowners insurance policy have ANY affect or influence on storm forecasting? That is just plain stupid. That is like you asking the NHC to commit insurance fraud by not upgrading a storm to a hurricane if the data supports the upgrade. If morons choose to live near the coast then they must pay for that extra risk and not pass it onto other homeowners not living on the coast.
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