Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Record Cold Coming...???
Hummm...haven't heard much about Global Warming now that half of the Globe is in a deep freeze. TWC always pushes record highs, but rarely mentions record lows. Bias? Nah ! As ONLYREAL mentioned, we'll only see rain on Thursday as all the moisture will be gone before we're cold enough to change over to snow. You snow lovers only hope is for a wave to form on the front down in the Gulf throwing up enough moisture into the cold air on Saturday morning. Possible? yes. Likely? No. The main concern is HOW COLD? NWS is thinking 14-18 North Shore for Sat & Sun. morning with 20-25 South Shore. Obviously that would cause some problems with our pipes this weekend. No need to run the water tonight, but that will change for Sat & Sun. mornings. Looking down the road...the warm up will be very slow. Might not get above 50 until Wednesday of next week so enjoy today's "warmth" as it won't last. In addition, an upper disturbance could really bring us another strong Gulf Low late next week. Only 9 more weeks until Spring ! Get those freeze precautions/preparations done tomorrow.
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Hi Bob,
Is there any possibility that I can come on by the station anytime soon? I am totally free to help in the afternoon after school any day of the week.
Thanks,
Dylan Federico
Forecast: Part 1
Today, a surface cyclonic wave will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico bringing us a cold rain. It will be a very nasty cold rain at that, temperatures will be around 50F on the SS and in the 40's on the NS before the front passes through. Winds will be out of the South till around noon when the Arctic front passes through. Significant cold air advection will then take place as soon as that polar front passes through. Temperatures could be flirting with freezing on the SS as early as 6pm this Evening; obviously it will be earlier on the NS. The question though is whether the cold air will make it before the moisture gets flushed out of the area? This question has been pondering in my head since last Saturday. Looking at surface maps the cold air is winning the race. However, initially it will be a shallow cold air-mass. It is so shallow that last night it was 23F with rain in Oklahoma City. Now I bet you are wondering what the heck I am talking about. Right? Well, It may be 23F at the surface, however about a 1000 feet up it might be 40F. This means that the precipitation isn't having enough time to freeze while in the air. But this can be very problematic because once that rain hits the ground or any object it will freeze instantly. This can cause hazardous road conditions and I am concerned that will be the case tonight. In extreme cases this freezing rain, when it accumulates, can knock down power lines and tree branches causing power outages, fortunately a severe ice storm is not in the forecast. There is possibility that the rain could change over the snow briefly before the moisture gets flushed out of the area. But it’s not terribly likely though.
Temperatures will plummet as soon as the Sun goes down this evening. I anticipate lows will fall to around 24 on the Southshore, and around 19F on the Northshore. A HARD FREEZE WARNING is in effect for all of SE LA. A hard freeze warning means that temperature’s are forecasted to fall below 26F for a period of 4 hours or more. Since it will be that cold you will need to wrap your pies so they won't burst. You may also want to keep your pets inside. If you can't let your pets in then try to provide them a warm shelter, food, and fresh water.
In addition to the cold air it also will be very windy tonight. Winds will be sustained out of the North at 25mph with gusts to 40mph, tonight. This will cause wind-chills to dive into the teens and then single digits on both sides of the lake, I bet that will sting. If you go outside you better be prepared because it is going to be dangerously cold. You could get frost bite if outside for an extended period of time. These dangerously low wind chill values will also occur Friday and Saturday nights.
Forecast: Part 2
High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing tomorrow and Saturday. I expect low to mid teens on the Northshore on both Friday and Saturday Nights. On the Southshore, I expect upper teens to low 20's.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday morning a secondary mid-tropospheric shortwave trough that will be embedded in the NW Flow on the left side of the Main Trough will dive into the Great Plains Friday evening. This shortwave has the potential to give us some flurries Friday Night/Saturday Morning. However, even though the needed Mid-Level disturbance will be here the model support for the moisture to reach us isn't great at this time. The air might simply just be too dry. Another reason is that the Low that spins up will have great difficulty getting adequately close to the coast due to the mammoth 1050MB surface ridge that will be dominating the Eastern 2/3rds of the country. I am going to say we have a 20% chance of a few flurries Friday Night/Saturday Morning. Keep in mind that my forecast could be too optimistic. But you also have to remember that the models showed very little to no indication in their forecasts for the flurries that fell over North Louisiana, Central and Southern Mississippi, and the North Shore on Monday. It was only in the upper 30's and really took little moisture for that to happen. The air will be much colder than Monday on Friday Night so it would take even less moisture to spit out some flurries. I currently do not expect any accumulations. If there are any changes I will let you know.
-ONLYREAL
ONLYREAL...me thinks you are too alarmist. again, I like to look at satellite and radar loops more so vs models. At 8 AM, the rain is racing eastward over north LA and has pulled east of Monroe. It's still 37 at SHV. I expect the same thing will happen here. The rain showers will pull away many hours before we get cold enough to reach freezing. I just don't see any icing problems as the cold air is very dry and should evaporate any wetness on the roads BEFORE we reach 32 degrees. Again NO model brings enough moisture back over us on Saturday AM when we'll be deep into the polar air. That is still something to watch. E-mail me at bbreck@fox8tv.net re: visit
And yet oddly, Bob, you were quiet when we were breaking record highs in October... The road goes both ways.
Thanks to Bob and ONLY REAL for your informative forecasting. Seems like everyone that doesn't have to venture out on Friday should stay PUT.... I am hoping there won't be an ICE problem, but with the rain coming and temps falling shortly after I imagine somewhere, someone will have icy roads and bridges to contend with. Too bad it won't be snow! With this cold weather, we should be able to reep the benefits of something good out of it..i.e., snow that we don't usually get to see, but alas, maybe next time. Again, thanks to you both for your heads up forecasting. It sure makes the work week easier to deal with when you know what you are up against. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure! Stay Warm!
Nashette
There was an article on msnbc.com, in which a scientist noted that the cold does not disprove global warming. However, there will be fewer such cold snaps in the future. And in any case, we're messing up the climate whether it gets too hot or too cold.
Makes you wonder what those cavemen did to end the Ice Age :)
Bob...
Just wondering why Weather Underground is still keeping Ice Pellets and snow in the Picayune (39466) forecast and The Weather Channel makes no mention of any frozen precipitation.
Also, has the rain in areas like Baton Rouge, Alexandria, etc. seemed to be evaporating behind the front fast enough to keep us out of any ice problems?
I enjoy this blog very much. I like how ONLYREAL can get me so excited over snow, and then how gently you can MAKEITREAL...thanks...
Bob,
I see some clouds coming from the Pacific moving across Mexico. They seem to be creeping north. Would this be the area to watch for snow if infact it did snow?
Actually Brad, Bob is NEVER quiet! Bob is not Tooting the global warming horn, he is pointing out the OBVIOUS. BIASED MADIA!!!!!!!
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