Yep, if you believe AccuWeather's latest hurricane prediction for the 2010 season...16-18 named storms...Yikes! We all gonna die. Their reasoning is that El Nino will weaken and go away allowing for more storms. My take? All the long range Gurus were wrong on predicting the strength of the current El Nino. I believe everyone is gonna be wrong predicting it leaving so quickly. IF we can get it to stay around into July & August, perhaps the 1st half of the season will be fairly quiet. I have no skill in long range predictions(few do), but here goes. Last year we had 9 named storms. 2010 will see maybe as few as 8 but no more than 12. At least these are forecasts that can be verified...unlike the Global Warming Alarmists who "predict 50-100 years from now.
Weatherwise, a cooldown is coming for the next 5-7 days. After 3 straight days 70+, we may not top 70 again until next weekend. At this time of the year the chill is not what it was back in January & February. At least the weekend should be dry with plenty of sunshine.
8 comments:
Can't believe hurricane predictions are out already!!! We are just getting over winter! I hope we don't have any more really cold weather. I'm ready to hit the pool!!!
Bob,
The hurricane forecasters do this every year. And, it seems that their predictions are wrong every year.
And "predict" is what they continue to do with their climate change agenda. On a daily basis it seems that there is another "effect" that we should worry about regarding "climate change". Today it's what "might" happen to the State birds, the loss of habitat due to rising seas, etc, etc, etc.
It seems like EVERYTHING, all the good things we need to prosper and survive are affected negatively by "climate change".
I'm hoping that one day they'll predict "climate change" will cause the prolific Nawlins roach to become extinct.
We can only hope.
Nah Craig, roaches, mosquitos and weeds will outlive us all. My plants are dead but the weeds are alive and well..
I read AccuWeather's prediction and thought it was high, but what do I know. Especially coming off such a nonexistant year last year.
I just wish once these guys make a prediction, they stick with it. It always seems they change their prediction once the season starts based on the the number of storms that have already occured. Then brag for getting it correct. I'd rather them say afterwards... we predict 16 storms but this is why we only had 10 storms... and explain why.
Last year with the activity so scarce, they were dying to call just any gathering of clouds a storm and then hurricane.
Truth is no matter what they predict, it only takes one that hits our area is one too many and we must be ready for it.
Nashette, my pool is relatively looking good, it does need a little cleaning but the water is crystal clear...I'll be itching soon to get it up and going for the upcoming season...which the water may take a little longer to warm up with all this cool weather we've had and have been having.
Thought today was gorgeous when I was out in the sun...this time of year I have been working 7 days a week...missing out on the nice weather...
Still waiting for that first taste of crawdads...
pre·dic·tion (pr-dkshn)
n.
1. The act of predicting.
2. Something foretold or predicted; a prophecy.
What's the big deal? They are just guessing at what may happend just like everyone predicts football scores.
Look... I am not trying to be the prophet of doom or anything but we need to heed this guy's warning this year. Even though Colorado State hyped their forecast last year, Accuweather didn't and they were right on with last years Hurricane Forecast. From everything I have seen so far Joe is right on the money and I really think that this up coming Hurricane Season is one you will not want to play around with. If you look around the world this past El Nino has really warmed and moistened up the atmosphere and the Japanese, European, and Canadian Models want to focus the heat and energy in the Atlantic Basin.
They all indicate that there will be above normal Sea Surface Temperatures in the MDR, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. If you look the Water Temperatures are already well above normal in the Caribbean and MDR, the Gulf has a little catching up to do but we all know it will warm up in no time.
The models all forecast a dead El Nino by June if you look at the water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific the water anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are rapidly cooling off to normal levels and leaving only a shrinking area of above normal SST's in the Central Pacific.
In addition to A dieing El Nino and Above Normal Sea Surface Temperatures the models also forecast well below normal Sea Level pressure across the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and The Gulf of Mexico. This means there will be plenty of lift across the tropical breeding and this also bods well with the well above normal precipitation totals that are forecasted by all models in the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and GOM.
The only thing that could limit the amount of development of storms, at least South of 15N, is the fact that the QBO looks to be in an Easterly phase. However, in the past couple of years the correlation between the QBO and Atlantic Hurricane Activity was less apparent so I suppose the QBO may not be much of a factor.
My point is that the conditions are setting up for an Active and potentially dangerous Hurricane Season. I am not trying to scare anyone, that is not my mission here. Just be prepared because you will more than likely need to be prepared for this Hurricane Season. I will come out with my official Hurricane Season Outlook in one month from today.
-ONLYREAL
I would think that hurricane forecasters tend to aim high with their estimates, seeing as better to have people prepare for many storms and have to deal with a few, rather than predict just a few and be taken by surprise by a higher number.
Every Hurricane Season is "potentially" dangerous. I think it has been shown over and over that there is VERY LITTLE skill in forecasting storms ahead of time. My concern is...what's the point? If you live in a hurricane landfall zone you have to be prepared EVERY season. To say that it's going to be more active or less active serves little purposed UNLESS your goal is to increase fear/anxiety or just to make headlines. Kinda like the AGW alarmists and their "predictions". Again, to put faith in computer models regarding El Nino (models were wrong in forecasting its strength) is pure folly. To quote an old Saint's coach..." You think you know, but you don't know and you'll never know." Stick with trying to predict out 3-5 days.
July 11, 2011
My experience is that each morning as I get in my car on my carport (in the shade) and read where the temperature at 8:00 A. M. is already at 80 degrees, that's when I know we'll start having our daily summer monsoon rains. That's when your ears should perk to listen when the Weather Announcer mentions (EASTERLIES)! Once you hear the word (Easterlies) then you have about a month to eat all the food in your freezer before you have to bug out!
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