Since El Nino is gone and La Nina is growing, all the experts keep predicting way above normal/average numbers of named storms this season. I still see several things working in our favor that I hope continue for the next 8-10 weeks. 1) We still have some wind shear over the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic. 2) Lots of dry air/African dust covers parts to the Atlantic and the wild card, 3) a rather deep east coast trough is developing with a strong upper ridge across the central U.S. What will that do? It makes an avenue for any storms coming off of Africa to turn to the north EAST of Florida and up AWAY from the Gulf. If a storm does get into the Caribbean and make it into the southern Gulf. the big ridge to our north would steer the storm westward into Mexico or South Texas (remember Alex & TD 2?). Will it last? Probably not, but for the next 10-14 days, we look protected from those long track storms coming from the Atlantic. Stay tuned.
In the short term, the only relief from the heat will be in a few stray PM T-Storms as that trough brings a weak front closer to us.
1 comment:
I was worried earlier about the current Invest. Now, I see the models are starting to notice the East Coast trough as well. Whew!!!
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