Received an e-mail asking why FOX 8 doesn't have a "countdown to Mardi Gras" calendar on our web page like the "other channels"? I think what happened today is a clear reason why I don't go out beyond 7 days. I don't even like the 7 day forecast because that gives the viewer a false sense of our accuracy, which becomes very limited once beyond 3-5 days. Yesterday's model runs all kept us dry this weekend. Buda boom, this AM's run flip-flopped and now brings us a 70-80% chance for showers on Friday. If we can't get it right 2 days out, how the heck can you believe a calendar that says it'll rain on Mardi Gras? That's 12 days away!
In the short term, it appears we'll see some showers around on Friday, but they should be light and I think the parades will roll. A strong cold front arrives Saturday morning driving the coldest air in many weeks down to the Gulf South. North Shore could be near freezing on Saunday morning. You'll need the heavy weather gear this weekend. A quick warm up begins on Monday with 70+ by Tues-Thursday. Another strong cold front makes for a stormy Friday with next weekend looking dry but very cold. However, I've already said skill beyond 3-5 days isn't much better than a guess. Stay tuned!
1 comment:
I occasionally watch the 'other guys', Bob, and I totally agree with you. People think that just because another meteorologist might assert some confident prediction of upcoming weather beyond three days, that does not make them a superior meteorologist. The dynamics that drive our weather are complex, and their behavior cannot be accurately predicted beyond a certain time window.
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