Thursday, August 29, 2013

No August Hurricanes...

It is obvious that we will enter the month of September with only 6 named storms (all minor) and ZERO Hurricanes.   I was reading how rare that is…in fact since 1851, only 25 other years had no hurricanes until September.  On top of that, look at the globe and you’ll find that there are ZERO hurricanes.  That’s amazing!  Hurricane experts are totally confused.  What happened to the very active season they ALL predicted?   I see 2 factors inhibiting development this summer.  1) We have seen month after month a well defined T.U.T.T. (upper lows) that has created way too much wind shear.  2)  There has been this huge clouds of African dust that keeps streaming westward smothering most disturbances that move into the Atlantic.    Does that mean we’re home free this season?  Of course not as some of our strongest storms have come during September.  However, I still believe we will start seeing more and more early Fall cold fronts that should steer most storms to our east, especially once we get into October.   So hang on for another 3-4 weeks as I still expect to see a 2-3 week burst of tropical activity.  Stay tuned!

 

In the short term, our current stretch of 7 days below 90 may end tomorrow as we expect near zero rain chances.  As we head towards the weekend, shower chances will increase slowly, but it should be terrific compared to the past 2 Labor Day Weekends.

2 comments:

hcm0680 said...

Dr. Masters blog today was talking about Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict on tropical depressions in the Atlantic!
I like this, the probability of getting a four day forecast right... less than a coin toss. Yet when it comes to climate change models for the next 100 years there is 98% certainty. LoL

Anonymous said...

101Ok... Soooo, with this hurricane season being SOOO strange and QUIET... Bob, do you have ANY idea's or thoughts on as to WHY its been so quiet GLOBALLY, and not just here in our part of the world...? All the experts predicted ANOTHER over active year, and they COULDNT be any more WRONG...! What's got the tropics turned COMPLETELY OFF this year???!