Wednesday, September 18, 2013

First Comes the Rain...

Satellite loops show that the circulation over the Yucatan has drifted out over the extreme southern Gulf and is likely to become Tropical Storm Jerry in the next 1-2 days.  All models waddle it slowly westward, maybe looping into next Monday or Tuesday.  In the mean time, a cold front will stagger down into Louisiana by late Saturday interacting with the tropical moisture surging out of the Gulf to create a heavy rain potential (2-3”) here Friday night into Sat. PM.  Right now, the timing on the front brings it thru us by daybreak on Sunday driving drier, good feel air down off the LA/MS coasts.  The result will be cooler night time lows, especially on the North Shore.   If something does develop ahead of the front, it’s likely to be a “hybrid” type area of low pressure, not an evacuation type storm.  Let the Fall fronts begin !

 

In the short term, expect more fast moving heavy showers Thursday with rain chances  40-50%.  Those chances increase to 50-60% on Friday and 80-90% on Saturday.  Sunday looks great!

No comments: