Satellite loops show that the circulation over the Yucatan has drifted out over the extreme southern Gulf and is likely to become Tropical Storm Jerry in the next 1-2 days. All models waddle it slowly westward, maybe looping into next Monday or Tuesday. In the mean time, a cold front will stagger down into Louisiana by late Saturday interacting with the tropical moisture surging out of the Gulf to create a heavy rain potential (2-3”) here Friday night into Sat. PM. Right now, the timing on the front brings it thru us by daybreak on Sunday driving drier, good feel air down off the LA/MS coasts. The result will be cooler night time lows, especially on the North Shore. If something does develop ahead of the front, it’s likely to be a “hybrid” type area of low pressure, not an evacuation type storm. Let the Fall fronts begin !
In the short term, expect more fast moving heavy showers Thursday with rain chances 40-50%. Those chances increase to 50-60% on Friday and 80-90% on Saturday. Sunday looks great!
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