After the blazing 97 yesterday where we saw mostly sunny skies, it was obvious today was different. Gone was the upper level capping that prevented clouds from bubbling up replaced instead by deep layered tropical moisture. Once the sun rose, clouds quickly began to blossom with storms developing shortly after 10 AM. The increase in clouds and showers resulted in highs “only” reaching the lower 90s. NWS indicates this pattern will hang around into next week so expect pretty much basic summer time as we head towards the last third of August. Today’s models hint at a weak cold front pushing down to us by Wed-Thurs of next week which could bring some drier air resulting in slightly cooler night time lows, especially on the North Shore. We’ll see.
NHC is finally tracking a “legitimate” tropical system tonight. Tropical Storm Ernesto is way out in the north central Atlantic heading towards Ireland & Scotland…hardly the Tropics! But several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, a strong tropical wave is charging westward and NHC has given it a 20% chance (very slight) of developing. As they mentioned, this system will have to quickly form since there are strong shearing westerly winds over the Caribbean predicted into next week meaning IF Florence did form, she would not last very long. This is a far different summer from 2017 when every wave coming across the Atlantic seemed to strengthen into a strong storm. Not happening this summer so far, but we have many more weeks to endure. There is another wave farther out in the Atlantic, and we expect that to happen during this time of the year. Typically, (not this year) about 100 waves move off Africa and cross the Ocean with less than 10% developing into a named storm. We could end up with 10-12+ named storms this year, but if they’re all like Debby & Ernesto, I’m all for it. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment