Louisiana Is the Bulleye...Midday Update

Radar loops are showing a weak low level circulation moving inland near Cameron southeast of Lake Charles.  This is producing a large rain shield with us on the far eastern edge.  Look for several rounds of tropical downpours this afternoon as this system moves farther to the north. Our next challenge will be the tropical wave between Cuba and Nassau. Current satellite loops are indicating an organizing system (NHC designated it Invest 91L) that could become a depression as soon as this afternoon.  All of the morning model runs bring whatever forms right towards Louisiana with the main impacts arriving Tuesday PM into Wednesday midday.  The worst case scenario would be a low end hurricane (slim chance) with the best case being little development (slim chance) and just a tropical wave.  In between, the more likely probabilities are a strong tropical depression or a moderate tropical storm.   Any of the above will bring lots of heavy rainfall on grounds that are already saturated.   2-3”+ is very likely with 8-12” a remote possibility.   This will NOT be a major hurricane, but it could be a quick developer once it reaches the Gulf on Monday.   Our rebuilt levees will be able to handle this system, however, we’re likely to see power outages, especially if winds get above 50-60 mph and coastal flooding.   Labor Day is a holiday for many, but I checked with my supermarket (Rouses) and they will be open.  RIGHT NOW, it appears schools will NOT reopen on Tuesday IF we are under Tropical Storm/Hurricane warnings.   Monday will be a drier day before conditions go downhill by Midday on Tuesday.   NHC might even come out with their new “Potential Tropical Cyclone” statement this afternoon.    You should use today & tomorrow to get any supplies needed to carry your family  through several days of not being able to get to the stores.    I’ll update later today as we still don’t have anything to track except a growing cluster of storms SE of Miami heading towards the SE Gulf.  NHC has a full team of aircraft scheduled to investigate this system beginning Monday morning. Stay tuned!