Still No Gordan Yet...

The tropical wave moving towards the Florida Straits is now within the radar ranges of south Florida.  There is definitely a circulation, but few showers around the center.  Enhanced satellite views show this is an asymmetric (lopsided/eastern based) system and I would suspect NHC will not name this tonight.  I’m writing this while I await the 10 PM update.  Really don’t expect any major changes until a plane arrives tomorrow morning after it reaches the SE Gulf.  What should happen then is we’ll go under a Tropical Storm Warning with an added Hurricane Watch.  I have always preached to watch the centerline track to see which way NHC is “trending” with the movement.   Expect little change when the update arrives.  What we need to understand with these lopsided storms is it really matters what side of the storm you are on.   Normally, the east side is the worst/wetter side so it will matter where the centerline goes.  If the storm ends up at Biloxi, we’ll get very little wind and higher waters.  If the track ends up to our south (Morgan City), we’ll get more wind, rain & water.   Let’s see what NHC is thinking.

 

It’s in and as expected the changes as slight.  A storm surge watch has been issued from the mouth of the River to the AL/FL line.  The centerline track has nudged slightly  to the north with the center now projected right over the City.  This is something to follow tomorrow since this trend would be good for us, not so good for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast.    One thing I like is how NHC is highlighting the fast (15 mph) forward motion.  That would mean less time to gain strength and less time to endure heavy rainfall.   Just saw Bruce show the VIPIR model bringing the center inland to our EAST (Pearl River) before daybreak on Wednesday.  I like that solution.  The only folks who need to make evacuation decisions on Monday are those outside the Levee protection system.  IF VIPIR is correct, then the water surge will not be so great.   As I mentioned earlier, the warmest waters are over the western Gulf.  All those things are in our favor.  Let’s see what the plane finds tomorrow morning.   Our levees did very well with a slow moving Hurricane Isaac back in 2012.  This system should not slow down as it rotates around the western edge of the Bermuda High.  Stay tuned!