Models must be right...

Since I can watch all the local weathercasters from the comfort of my home, I get the feeling that everyone leans 95% on the models and if the models don't show it, it can't happen.   All channels did the same tonight showing 2, sometimes 3 different model runs that keep any snow north and east of Lake Pontchartrain.   I must admit there really is no good reason to go against the computer, however, here is what I would watch for as the cold air approaches.   How much rain lingers behind the front?   If the rain leaves before the real cold air arrives, we get no snow.  Key stations to keep an eye on will be Lafayette, Baton Rouge & McComb.   IF Lafayette changes over to snow, then perhaps those of us south could see a mixture/flakes before the moisture pulls away.  Best chances for some white sticking on the ground will be from Baton Rouge to Franklinton to Picayune.  North of that, there could be several inches making travel dangerous.    What I have seen is a slight moderation in the bitter cold over Canada from 40-50 below to 35-40 below.   A lobe of the Polar Vortex can be seen on the water vapor loop just north of the U.S./Canadian border and that will be what drives the frigid blast over the Great lakes and into the NE.    It still seems like the core of the cold stays to our north & east, but I'm taking no chances.  As mentioned yesterday, I prepared my house (faucet covers) and yard (plants into heated shed) today,  Since it appears there will not be a significant snow cover near us, the worst cold for the South Shore will be 29-33 and it might not get that cold.   North Shore still looks like 24-28 for Wednesday morning before some clouds move in keeping us not as cold on Thursday AM.    All in all, this will be a quick in & out for the cold as guidance warms us back into the 60s by Friday & 70s over the weekend into next week.    We are still many weeks from being out of a hard freeze threat (late February), and more very cold air is likely to follow our late week warm up.  Each day we are gaining a higher sun angle and longer days with shorter nights.   I'm thinking another 4-6 weeks before real Spring arrives.   Let's hope it's like last year's...probably the best Spring ever during my 40+ years living here.   Stay tuned!