Models were Right & Wrong...

Last night the models indicated any snow would stay north of Lake P...and they were correct.  They also indicated 1-3" of snow would fall between McComb & Jackson on over to Birmingham.  Wrong!  In fact the visible (daylight) Sat. loop showed no snow cover at all over the deep South.  Sure there might have been a dusting, but it quickly melted once the sun came out.  Which brings me to this...I was listening to the radio after 9 AM and heard the host read an e-mail from a listener.   It read...' back in 1979 when snow & cold were predicted, we dressed our kids accordingly and sent them off to school.  Now in 2019 (40 years later), when snow is predicted (winter weather advisory on North Shore), schools close and we hunker down hoping the power doesn't go off".   What has changed in 40 years?    Communications?  Certainly, but more importantly, we have raised a softer generation, way more so than our Grandparents.   No, we didn't walk 4 miles to school in the snow barefooted, but rarely do I remember having school cancelled because of the weather.  Sure there were "snow days" when over a foot prevented kids beyond walking distance to come to school.  But now we have this belief that "models must be correct" so we cancel things only to find it was a sunny, cold day.    It's easy to do Monday morning quarterbacking, but I think the lesson here is don't follow the models over the cliff.   You can always fall back on "better to be wrong than sorry" works for only so long.  If you cry wolf and the wolf never comes eventually leads to distrust, and trust, once lost, is rarely regained. 

As mentioned yesterday, we will be spared the brunt of the cold with Wednesday morning being the coldest.   Lots of high clouds are approaching, and like snow cover, cloud cover does make a different.  It acts like a blanket keeping temperatures from dropping.  At worst the South shore might touch freezing ( no pipe problems) with the North Shore 25-30.   Below zero has reached Chicago, but that air is heading more to the east than to the south.   All models have a big warm up coming for the next 5-7 days with highs reaching 70+ by Sunday.    That won't be the end of the cold, but it's nice that we don't have to endure weeks of the chill like the folks up north.   Next rain chance comes Friday PM with a few showers.  Better rain chances are not likely until another  cold front next week.  Stay tuned!