Flip Flopping the Forecast...

One of the hardest things I faced each year was the Endymion Parade forecast given to their membership on the Tuesday evening before the parade.  Having to stick your neck out 4 days in advance at a time of the year where weather systems move very quickly was a challenge.   What I tried NOT to do was to keep flip flopping the forecast even if new computer guidance suggested to do so.   In the 30+ years of doing the Endymion Forecast, I think I was only totally wrong once.    Most of the time it stayed dry as the rains came in sooner or held off till later.   Tonight Bruce Katz will deliver that forecast and I don't miss the challenge.  In fact, the National Weather Service's afternoon discussion used the wording..."it would be futile" to try to pinpoint the timing of rainfall the next 7 days through Mardi Gras as a stalled surface frontal boundary coupled with many weak fast moving upper disturbances will create numerous opportunities for some showers.   The first batch comes through after midnight and before daybreak on Wednesday.  Another round is possible late Wednesday PM into the evening parade times.  Thursday looks to see another round but much of the day should stay dry.  Friday into early Saturday looks warm & muggy but basically dry before more showers break out ahead of a strong front coming for Saturday evening.  Some lingering showers could impact Sunday before Lundi Gras & Mardi Gras turn dry, breezy & much colder.  Temperatures will generally be warm (70s) through Saturday with Sunday dropping into the 50s & Monday & Tuesday struggling to get out of the 40s.   Having said all of that, just remember the uncertainty of the forecast INCREASES the farther out in time you go.    Bottom line, many parades will have rain issues.  Hopefully they won't be as bad as what hit Caesar on Saturday night?!!!   All Hail Endymion!   Stay tuned!