We are under a very fast zonal (west to east) upper level flow that will keep any real cold from coming down until this weekend. What's difficult to forecast under these conditions is the timing of any minor disturbances that bring quick bursts of rainfall. One such burst will fly though over night with another during the day Tuesday PM into early Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon & evening look dry into Thursday with another quick burst flying thru late Thursday. Friday should be mostly dry, but there could be a few stray showers in a warm (75-80), muggy air mass. As David mentioned at 5 PM, an Arctic front will plow through during the day on Saturday. It's hard to tell how much rain (if any) will be ahead of or behind that front. Saturday morning looks warm(70+) & mostly dry with much colder air(50s into 40s with wind!) coming for Saturday evening. Sunday some overrunning rainfall will make it feel miserable since temps will be in the 40s with any rain moving out for Lundi Gras & Mardi Gras. Highs both days look to stay in the 40s so this will be a heavy coat Mardi Gras. After a very (perhaps record) warm February, March will get off to a much colder first 10 days.
The Corps of Engineers announced today that it will begin to open the Spillway on Wednesday starting with 30 of the 350 bays. They believe it might take opening as many as 200 bays to insure keeping the Carrollton gauge below 17' with a crest on March 18th. If more heavy rains keep falling farther to our north, the Spillway might stay open well into April or even May. Stay tuned!
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