Hello July, It's Hot...

We have month one of the 2019 Hurricane Season by us with 5 more to go.  Actually, it's only 3 1/2 since we have never had a November major hurricane cross the Louisiana coast & ditto for once beyond Oct. 10th.  Our "prime time" historically is August 10th thru October 10th.  Take away the sub-tropical named Andrea and so far it's quiet in the Atlantic.  Not so in the eastern Pacific as Tropical Storm Barbara is expected to become a hurricane in the next day or so.  It follows on the now gone Alvin with another disturbance predicted by the models developing behind Barbara.  As a rule, if the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is not.  None of the models are forecasting development during the next 10-14 days in our part of the World.  There is a slug of moisture/showers down over the southern Gulf, but models are having a difficult time figuring where it will go.   Today we saw a couple of storms develop during late afternoon heating and I expect that will be the case for the next 1-2 days.  Later this week, an upper high/ridge is supposed to build over us and that would mean fewer storms & hotter temps.  All in all, it's a rather uneventful start to July.

I will be away from my computer for awhile and might not post again until the weekend.  Stay tuned! 

It Wasn't a Cold Front...

I was out walking Bailey this evening and almost went back to my house for a sweater.  OK, maybe I exaggerate, but it really felt much cooler.  Looking back at the airport's hourly readings showed the temp dropped from 95 to 79 within an hour.  No it wasn't a cold front but strong T-Storms produced an outflow boundary bringing down cooler air from higher up down to the surface.  Winds were gusting to 43 mph at the Lakefront and I had many small branches knocked off my 3 water oaks.  Storm movement today was from the north to the south, but that will change tomorrow.  A large upper low is centered in the Gulf moving westward.  We will start to get on the "wet side" by late Sunday into Monday and that should mean higher rain chances.  It should also mean the showers won't just be in the afternoon as some will form over the warm Gulf and move inland during the morning hours with others developing inland during the day from the sun's heating.   Hopefully the rains will find my yard/garden as today we received nothing.

The Tropics remain quiet in our part of the World, however, the eastern Pacific is very active with once Hurricane Alvin pulling westward while computer models indicate 2 new storms will likely follow over the next few days.  None of these are expected to affect any land areas.  Stay tuned!

Oh What a North Wind Brings...

Growing up in NW Indiana (Hammond/Whiting), I remember all the TV weather forecasts in the summer would have "cooler by the lake" after the predicted high temperature.  In fact, one July 4th fireworks display had the winds roaring in from the north with temps in the 50s.  Burrr!!!  Lake Michigan rarely got to 70 degrees so when the winds blew in off the Lake, it was like turning on the air-conditioner with temps sometimes falling from the 90s into the 70s within minutes.   No such relief here as north winds blowing off Lake P. does little for cooling us.  In fact, it keeps night time lows 80+.  What the north winds today did do is bring in slightly drier surface air (dewpoints in the 60s) that allowed highs to heat into the mid to upper 90s.  Wow was it hot! (96 at MSY)  Any relief coming the next 3-5 days will come, not from Lake P., but from an increase in showers & T-Storms.  Model guidance does indicate the upper levels will become more favorable (unstable) for those daily storms before we see less activity as we approach the July 4th holiday.

During my round of golf today I went through two 12 oz. bottles of Powerade Zero.  Still I began to feel really drained as we reached hole 15th and realized this was one of the hottest days of June so far.    It reminded me of the real dangers of the summer heat if you work or play outside.  You must stay hydrated and keep drinking liquids even if you are not thirsty.  Stay tuned!

Finally a Pacific Named Storm...

The eastern Pacific Hurricane season begins on May 15th and today finally saw their 1st named storm.  Watching David this afternoon, he indicated there have been only 2 other years with later named storms.   Humm...must be global warming?

Crossing the Causeway yesterday, 2 things I noticed were the haze in the sky and the algae in the water.  FOX 8 has been tracking this dust layer coming from the Saharan Desert and it's one reason no tropical development is expected for the next week at least.  The algae in the Lake is likely to get worse before it gets better and we have all seen the stories on how all the fresh water pouring through the Spillway is creating a crisis on our LA/MS coasts.  The River is slowly falling, but the process will take weeks before the Corps shuts the Spillway.  They announced this afternoon they MAY start closing the bays by the second or third week in July.  Yikes!  You see why it will likely get worse before it gets better.

If computer models are correct, higher rain chances should return by Friday PM staying around into early next week.   That should make us less hot.  For Thursday, expect another hot & mostly dry day with more Saharan dust keeping skies hazy.   The dust should leave by Friday.  Stay tuned!

Oh What A Relief It Is...

The cluster of storms to our north last evening did indeed move to the SE bringing us some morning showers, but more importantly, an all day cloud cover.  That resulted in a less hot afternoon with highs staying in the 80s for a change.  We're unlikely to see a repeat on Tuesday so expect highs to be back to 90+.  Aside from a spotty daytime heating storm Tuesday-Thursday, rain chances should be below normal.  That is likely to change later this week as models are indicating an upper low forming along the Gulf coast that should get rain chance above normal.  So far here it has been a dry June.

The other major story is the crisis developing in Lake Pontchartrain and area lakes to the east including the Mississippi Coast.   The Bonne Carre Spillway has now been open for 90 days (3 months) and the volume of fresh water has killed most of the oyster beds and chased away most shrimp & speckled trout.  John Snell had a story showing an oyster fisherman pulling up nothing but dead oysters.  Worse yet, a toxic algae bloom has developed in Lake P. spreading into Mississippi Sound lowering oxygen levels, killing smaller fish, leaving a stench made worse by 90+ heat and closing beaches.   Another surge of water is moving out of the Ohio River due to recent heavy rains and that is likely to keep our river levels high into August.   I'm afraid things will get worse before they get better.   We need to get the Spillway shut to begin the process of making Lake P. brackish again.  Stay tuned!

Need Some Boomers To Bring Relief...

We all know our summers are hot & humid and, if we don't get a daily T-Storm, our highs reach well into the 90s.      A couple of showers did bubble up this afternoon, but they stayed west and north of the South Shore.  There is the possibility that a cluster of storms over north Louisiana & Arkansas could drift southward overnight giving us a better chance for some showers Monday & Tuesday.  However, I don't think we'll see any widespread rain chances until late in the week when an upper disturbance settles in over the Gulf South.    Bottom line?  Daily highs 90-95 requiring almost daily watering of your potted plants & gardens.

Typically/historically, we don't have much tropical activity during June & July here.  What is really amazing is the lack of tropical activity worldwide.  No named storms are happening anywhere.  Yea we had the 13 hour storm Andrea (never should have been named)back in May, but since then nothing.  The Weather Channel had a graphic showing the Eastern Pacific is approaching their latest start (July 2nd) ever.  My take?   It must be Climate Change/Global Warming since that is credited with all weather "extremes".   Whatever, a quiet hurricane season is perfectly fine with me, but we will not reach the peak/heart for another 5-6 weeks.  Stay tuned!

Here's The Catch...

Last week I posted about a Ron Swoboda booking signing (Here's the Catch) event.  I'm halfway through reading it and I've reached the part where he shows old photos of himself with some of baseball greats from the past (Casey Stengel, Willie Mays, Gil Hodges etc).  How neat to see how young he looked with these greats past their primes.  Reminds me of my latest Acadian Window commercial that pictures me from 1980 when I was 32 years young.  (Dark hair, no wrinkles)  If you are a baseball fan, Ron's book is a winner.  It's full of stories told only as Ron can.  I still hate it that his Mets caught & beat out my Cubbies.  However, the '69 Mets had superior pitching and that is what carried them in the end.  Ron is off to NYC for a Met's 50th reunion week.  His book captures those moments that made them the Amazing Mets.  I suggest you but it & enjoy.

Another Heat Advisory...but " Here's the Catch".   For the next 2-3 months, unless we have our daily showers & T-Storms around, each day will have the heat index 100+.   Every day we have to take precautions when working or playing outside.  The beauty of our Summer heat (if there is any!) is it allows our body to acclimate, unlike cities farther north where temperatures bounce up and down with each passing front.     I remember being in Chicago finding the heat feeling worse than here.  Why?   You could have a stretch of 90+ days followed by a cold front that dips temps into the 60s & 70s followed by a rebound back to 90+.  The body never acclimates to the heat.   Here, we get hot and stay hot.   Denver is in the 50s tonight with snow at the higher elevations.  In another week they could be 90-95+.   That makes it hard on the body to adjust.

I've been watering my potted plants daily, but there is some relief in sight.  Sunday PM should see some isolated (10-20%) pm storms increasing to 40-50% on Monday.  The real rain chances increase  late next week when coverage could top 60-70%.  That would help lower our temps making us less hot.   Otherwise, if you want to be cool, head north my friend.   Stay tuned!

Last Day of Spring?

Without any showers around today, we rose back into the 90s (94).  Astronomically, Thursday is the last full day of Spring as the Summer Solstice occurs at 10:54 AM on Friday.  Now all of us living in the Deep South know that is really meaningless since once we get to late May, it feels like summer.  However, in talking with my sister in NW Indiana, they're cloudy, cold & rainy with temps in the 50s!  She's complaining of not having any summer-like temps yet.  It has been an unusually cool & wet Spring for many from the Plains into the Great Lake states.   And that is unlikely to change for the next 7-10 days.

Locally, we're in a hot and mostly dry pattern with the storm track keeping storms across Texas & Oklahoma steering them into Arkansas,  Northern Mississippi & north Louisiana.  If the longer range models (10-14 days) are correct, we'll revert back into a wetter pattern by the end of June.  Until then, get use to the Summer (Officially) heat. Nothing is happening in the Tropics.  Amen! Stay tuned!

Can't Have It Both Ways...

If you keep up with the weather like I do, you know California had one of the wettest & snowiest seasons in history.  Gone is the recent drought with no part of California showing up in the weekly Drought Monitor as having a shortage.  So you can see why I'm confused by an article in the USA TODAY which states..."Wildfires maybe worse this year."    Now I could buy into that headline if the author said the recent above normal rainy season will allow for abundant growth in the underbrush which will create fuel during the normal dry season later this summer.     But noooo.  Here's what the author (Doyle Rice) said.   "Devastating fire seasons could be the rule...in the decades to come if climate change leads to increased temperatures (warming cycle) and reduced rainfall (not happening) - ideal conditions for large, ferocious wildfires".   Wait a minute.  We just had a super wet rainy season, not a drought, yet wildfires maybe worse this year?   Hummm!

Locally, my yard has seen 2 days of soaking rainfall (2.37") triggered by several fast moving upper air disturbances.  it appears we should see much less coverage Wed-Sat. with coverage dropping to below normal (20-30%).  Less rain usually means hotter temps and highs should rebound back into the lower 90s for the rest of the week.   The Tropics remain quiet Worldwide and our high Mississippi actually dropped slightly today.  If the rains farther north finally let up, river levels here should start falling rapidly once we get into July.   Let's hope so as fishing & oyster farming east of the River is terrible.  Stay tuned!

Remembering Dad...

This my 19th Father's Day without my Pop who left us in April 2001.  He was just a regular guy who went to high school, went off to WW II, came back to work in NW Indiana, married & fathered 4 children.   Dad was involved in little league baseball as a coach and he held nothing back, encouraging his team to never give up and to go down swinging.  Most of the time his teams won and he earned my respect as a player, but more importantly, as my Dad.  Bernie was animated, funny and known as "Mr. Personality"  The apple (me) didn't fall far from the tree! For those of you who still have a living Father, try to see him as often as you can.  You never know when you'll have to say goodbye.   For my youngest son, this is his first Father's Day.  I wish him many more and thanks for making your Dad...Pops!

More storms bubbled up during daytime heating today and I expect to see even greater coverage Monday into Tuesday as an upper disturbance will enhance our usual daily probabilities.   Coverage may be less later in the week, but we will not see another front dry us out like the one last week.  The rains keep falling up north ensuring the lower Mississippi River will stay very high into July.  The Tropics show no signs of coming to life for the next 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!

Rains Have Returned...

In previous posts, I've mentioned how unusual it was to have no rain on a typical June day.  The past week was exceptional as we enjoyed dewpoints in the 50s & 60s with bright sunny days and comfy cool nights.  Well,  reality has returned as dewpoints jumped back into the 70s, and that moisture coupled with daytime heating developed the more typical June showers & T-Storms.  We needed the rain and the increased cloud cover & showers kept highs below 90.  However, some spots received 2-3"  causing some brief street flooding, mainly across the South Shore.  It appears our daily shower chances will last  for awhile with only day to day fluctuations on coverage. 

With more rain forecast for the Plains into the Ohio Valley during the next 1-2 weeks,  the high water on the lower Mississippi is likely to linger well into July.  We have never seen such high river levels at the Carrollton gauge last for so long.   What we don't want to see are levels above 12 feet once we get into August-September.  That's when our best chances for a major hurricane occur.  We know if a major storm approaches the mouth of the river, it can raise levels at the Carrolton gage 7-8'+.   We don't need that added stress of the River topping our levees.  Let's hope the rains let up farther north so our River can drop before the heart of the season arrives.  Stay tuned!

Never Criticize the Boss...

Perhaps you've heard about the weather guy up in a small market in Illinois who was fired for being critical of a decision by management to use the terms "code yellow" and "code red" to warn their viewers of potential severe weather.  Stephen Colbert even did a skirt about it.   Fortunately, our local stations all follow the guidance put out by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) when we have a potential severe threat.  The graphics are clear outlining who might see severe storms the next day.   Having one station use something different is another way to confuse the message.  The Illinois broadcaster might have been right, but he chose the wrong platform (live on air) to display his disagreement.  It reminds me of a station consultant (they all have one) who wanted me to drop using the teeth on cold fronts and the half moons on warm fronts since he said..."nobody understands what they mean".  Nash started back on WDSU back in 1949 and was still using those standard ways to identify fronts in the early 80s.  I told this fella, "you mean the #1 rated weathercaster in this market has been using these graphics but nobody understands them?"   I didn't go on air and say how stupid he was.  Nope, I went to management and calmly told them how silly the idea was.  Fortunately they agreed and the rest is history.  There were many more stupid ideas coming from consultants and that will continue forever.  Just don't disagree with the Boss on-air.  It will get you fired.

Even the South Shore briefly dipped into the 60s this morning, but humidity is slowly coming back and we should feel it by Friday afternoon.  The weekend looks to be basic summertime, hot & humid with some spotty daytime heating T-Storms.  Since it has been awhile since we've heard thunder, so remember, when thunder roars, get indoors.  With the humidity back, we'll want the daily showers to break the heat.  Stay tuned!

The Thrill of the Catch...

During my life I have been lucky to have met several national celebrities (Bob Hope, Phil Donahue, Frankie Valle), but only one that I can call a true friend.   Tonight I was fortunate to watch my former sportscaster, & current golfing partner, Ron Swoboda regal us with baseball stories from his past.  What a great evening listening to Ron describe his rise to fame with the New York Mets where he is still The World Series Hero from 1969.    I bought 2 copies of his book (Here's The Catch) and can't wait to start reading about a past that I remember all too well.   It was Ron's Mets who knocked my Cubbies out of the World Series.  If you are a baseball fan and want to meet a real legend, there is one more booking signing Thursday night at the Garden District Book Shop on Prytania at 6 PM.  You won't be disappointed.

Weather-wise, our great stretch of good feeling June air will last into late Friday or Early on Saturday when the muggies return.  Some scattered showers could develop during daytime heating, but no widespread rains are expected.  Some  lows in the 50s & 60s are possible on the North Shore tomorrow with 70s south of Lake P.  Highs will again be below normal (85-88) on Thursday before we flirt with 90 on Friday.  This has been an unusual, but welcomed mid June upper pattern that is not likely to repeat until late September or early October .

The Tropics look to be dead, but a cluster of storms did briefly develop along the frontal boundary off the upper Texas coast.  Upper wind shear is way too strong for any surface development.  Let's hope El Nino hangs on through September with wind shear being the hurricane killer this season.  Stay tuned!

No June Gloom...

Back in 1970 during Marine Corps Boot Camp at MCRD San Diego, I was introduced to what was called "June Gloom".   Basically the cold California current created a low cloud deck that pushed well inland after dark and retreated offshore during daytime heating.  The process took almost all day resulting in a cloudy, cool morning with late afternoon sunshine making for some comfy cool hours.  
Here, normally the 1st 1-2 weeks in June have us locked into our typical summer pattern of 90-95 degree heat with daily daytime heating type T-Storms.  It's rare to have a June day without at least 20-30% shower coverage (typically 40-50%).   But this week we have a rare June treat.  No rain, but more importantly, lower humidity!  That results in overnight lows on the North Shore in the 60s with daytime highs below 90.  That should last into Friday before our beloved muggies come back making us feel miserable for the weekend.   Hey we really need our typical daily showers, otherwise we end up getting too hot.

The tropics are quiet and none of the models hint of development for the next 10-14 days.  The high Mississippi River levels show no signs of falling until July.  This has killed fishing in many locations with too much fresh water chasing the speckled trout outside.  Hopefully, by the time of the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo (July 25-27), the River will be down and the inside waters cleared up.

I will be at the Barnes & Noble store on Vets in Metairie Wednesday night between 6-8 PM for the  signing of my friend Ron Swoboda's new book "The Catch".  Ron is my World Series Hero (New York Mets 1969), former colleague at Ch. 8, and current golfing partner.  Hope you can join us?  Stay tuned!

Can't Be June without Humidity & Showers...

This is my 42nd summer here in NOLA and I do remember several fronts pushing off out coast during June.   However, I remember behind the front in the drier air we had near record heat,  Not this week as several surges of dry air will lower dewpoints from the mid to upper 70s into the 50s & 60s.  That's really good feeling air for summer.  Sure it will still be hot during the day 85-90, but those low dewpoints will allow the nights to fall into the 50s & 60s on the North Shore and away from the Lake south.  Because of the warm water temps (near 90) in Lake P., the South Shore will stay in the 70s.  But we should enjoy a stretch of dry, mostly sunny weather that lasts all week.  There could be a stray shower as the second surge of drier air pushes through but chances are slim to none.  The only thing we'll need to watch is having a front push into the Gulf and something spins up on the frontal boundary (Alicia 1983).  None of the models show that happening.  Stay tuned!

Several Months ago I asked you to open up your prayer lines for my brother-in-law Jerry.  He was diagnosed with a stage 4 brain tumor (inoperable) and given a 3-5% chance for survival IF the experimental chemo drugs worked in reducing the tumor.  I was humbled by your response as over 80,000+ people clicked on my blog site saying prayers for Jerry.  Well we need to open up those prayer lines again as Jerry's most recent MRI says the tumor has grown slightly.  His body has struggled with the chemo drugs and he remains very weak.   It seems appropriate on this Pentecost Sunday that I'm asking for your prayers to the Spirit to send Jerry healing/shrinking of the tumor if it is the Father's Will.   In addition, I'm asking for the Spirit to send Susan, Brenda & all his/her families & caregivers strength, courage, patience & trust.   We don't need 80,000 people praying for Jerry.  We need 80K times 8. (I remember in the Bible 70 times 7)  Jerry needs a miracle.  Do you believe in miracles?   I do, and if enough of us pray to the Father asking his Son and Holy Spirit for healing, it could happen.  Jerry is not ready to quit.  He's a spiritual man, a man of integrity, kindness & generosity.  A true Gentle Man.  C'mon Gang.  Let's try for that miracle.  Jerry really needs us now!

Good Feel Air Coming Next Week...

We had some midday showers blow through today as a slow moving upper low over Arkansas provided the necessary set up for daytime heating storms.  A line of storms oriented west to east developed (training)across St. Mary's Parish (Morgan City) resulting in 3-4" over 2-3 hours.  Fortunately the band weakened but that is the kind of rainfall one can expect as long as the upper low is nearby.  By Sunday the low pulls out and a NW upper flow will dry us out.  In addition, that pattern will bring down some very pleasant air from the north that will come in 2 surges.    The first will dry us out for Sunday and Monday with the second cooling down the North Shore into the 60s (!!!) for Tuesday-Friday of next week.  We'll feel that air South of Lake P., but water temps in the mid to upper 80s will keep us generally in the low to mid 70s.   North Winds next week will mean great fishing conditions along the coast as the beaches will see flat sea conditions.  It's not very often we see a real June cold/cool front, but next week upper pattern, if real, will allow that to happen.  Enjoy your weekend as we begin the drying process.  Stay tuned!

Oh What a Day...

OK, so the forecast wasn't exactly correct as we were expecting today to be more  a "rain event" instead of a severe weather day.  Flash Flood Watches were issued well in advance and they verified from Lafayette to Baton Rouge where 5-7" fell.  Baton Rouge had nearly 6" in 36 hours with 2.81" coming in one hour creating widespread street flooding.  We were very fortunate here as the line of storms was oriented north to south and remained very progressive (moving quickly) resulting in rain totals generally less than an inch.  SPC (Storm Prediction Center) recognized that the atmosphere over south Louisiana was quickly becoming unstable and issued a statement after 8 am that a Tornado Watch would be likely.  Bam! The tornadoes started coming and FOX 8 remained on the air past their news time of 10 AM.  In fact, they stayed lived all the way past 1 PM.  The VIPIR radar graphics were far superior to the other channels (I was switching) and Bruce Katz & Shelby Latino did an outstanding job of keep the public informed during a rapidly changing environment.  This system was part of Invest 91 L that did not develop into Barry.  However, the swirl of clouds moved right over SE LA/MS triggering widespread showers & storms before weakening this afternoon.  We are not done with the storms as a strong upper disturbance that was in New Mexico yesterday has pushed through Oklahoma and is entering Arkansas tonight. It will be a slow mover tomorrow and this is a cold pool (unstable)of air that should allow for numerous daytime heating storms on Friday.  Unlike today's north to south band of storms, Friday's should orient west to east.  If you get under a band of storms for several hours, expect some street flooding to occur.  There could even be some hail develop with this upper cold pool.  Expect drier air to filter in over the weekend and next week will see a weak front bring us some much lower humidity.

The tropics have gone dead and no models predict any action for the next 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!

Much Needed Rainfall...

While many parts of the central & southern Plains are too wet, SE LA/MS will; welcome the soakers coming our way, as long as they are spread out over many hours.  What's left of Invest 91L showed up as a well defined swirl of clouds west of Houston this PM.   Radar loops confirm that swirl has cleared the Houston area and is now entering western Louisiana.  We will be on the "wet side" of this system and NWS has put up Flash Flood Watches for Thursday into Friday.  Rains will become heavier & non-stop from around 10-11 PM tonight continuing into morning drive on Thursday.  We could/should see many dry hours before daytime heating storms develop late morning into afternoon.  Remember, 100% chance for rain DOES NOT mean it will rain 100% of the time.  An upper disturbance over New Mexico will slowly move eastward into the Southeast keeping our rain chances above normal Friday through Saturday.  Going to the beaches this weekend doesn't look promising for sun as clouds and showers will prevail.   As the upper low finally pulls out for next week, a NW upper flow may allow a weak cool/dry front to push off our coast making for a drier Tuesday and Wednesday.    What to watch for over night is for a "training effect" to develop which is what happened this morning SW of Houston.  Some spots (Wharton) received 6-8" of rain in 3-4 hours causing flooding.    I don't see that happening here as long as what's left of Invest 91L keeps moving.     Your FOX 8 Weather App will alert you overnight if any warnings are issued.   I'd plan on allowing some extra time for your morning drive.  Stay tuned!

Shear Is King...Again

The tropical disturbance over the weather Gulf remains disorganized with a low level center inland NW of Brownsville with a mid level swirl about 100 miles SE over the Gulf.  What is obvious on satellite loops is the strong upper level WSW wind flow over the northern Gulf.   NHC keeps lowering the probability for Barry to form with their latest giving it only a 20% chance for development.   What is coming is much needed rainfall to SE LA/MS.  We had a shower over City Park this afternoon and I expect even more around on Wednesday with Thursday having the highest rain chances.   With increased clouds and showers, look for temps to stay mainly below 90.   Somewhat drier air filters in for Saturday and Sunday before another upper disturbance increases rain chances on Monday.

While golfing at City Park this afternoon, I saw a disturbing scene.  3 golf carts took shelter under a large oak tree during a brief downpour.  While there was no thunder, I guess they felt safe from getting wet.  I remember several years back, a couple of golfers took shelter under a tree. There wasn't much lightning until a bolt came crashing down into the tree they were under.  They both died.  It's a simple lesson.  NEVER seek shelter under large/tall trees when it's raining.  When thunder roars, go indoors or at least head to the nearest shelter.  You don't need to be afraid of lightning, but you must respect it.  Stay tuned!

Dry Spell About To End...

It's been 14 days without rain at my house, but that will come to an end as moisture from a Gulf Disturbance staggers our way for later this week.   NHC again cancelled today's recon flight, but another is scheduled for tomorrow.  Satellite loops continue to show a large circulation over the Bay of Campeche that appears to be getting better organized.  However, there are no T-Storms around the broad center so  development continues to be a slow process.  The Euro has a closed low (depression? or Barry?) off the lower Texas coast east of Corpus Christi by Thursday morning with deep tropical moisture spreading our way.  We could see a stray storm on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday look to be stormy at times.  We need the good soaking, plus it will lower our temperatures a bit.

Today we set a new record high at 96 and will be in that neighborhood tomorrow before clouds and showers promise some relief from the heat.  Even though today was very hot, some drier air filtered in from the NE lowering dew points into the 60s.  If you got out of the sun, it really didn't feel that bad.  Expect dew points to climb into the mid to upper 70s by Thursday and that will give the air that old summer tropical feeling.  OK, who's ready for the countdown to our first Fall cool front?   Nah, Summer doesn't officially begin until the 21st so we just need to suck it up and quit complaining how hot it is.   Stay tuned!

No Barry Yet...

It's always a good thing when NHC cancels a recon flight.  Usually it's because the system they're watching shows little or no development.   This morning's satellite loop indicated a broad area of low pressure was down in the Bay of Campeche, but the Low lacked any T-Storms around it.  that remains the case this evening.  Recon is scheduled to try again on Monday PM, but NHC adds the caveat..."if necessary".   It sure looks like any development will be slow.

Today was another super hot one made worse by the lack of much wind.  There is a change coming for later this week as the upper ridge that has kept us hot & mostly dry will break down as an upper low ejects out of the Rockies.  This will turn our upper flow from the current NW (mainly dry) to the SW allowing for deeper tropical moisture.  The result will be higher rain chances beginning Wednesday through Friday which should help keep us less hot.  Stay tuned!

Finally, we all know of Chef Leah Chase's passing.   She is a gift to this city that will be giving forever.  Much like Louis Armstrong.   I feel blessed to have known her.

Birth of Barry?

Last night I indicated it didn't appear likely the disturbance over the southern Gulf would have enough time to develop into Tropical Storm Barry.   This morning's visible/daylight satellite loops show a much better swirl over the extreme southern Gulf that is moving very little.  In addition, some banding features are developing and AF Recon will investigate later this PM.  I now expect they will find a low level circulation and will name it Barry if  the recon finds winds 39+ mph.   Most computer models drift this system slowly NW, but several then turn it back towards the NE and head it to Louisiana for next week.   I hate to speculate on something that isn't there yet so without an initial center, models are likely to be all over the board.   The good news is we are not in August or September and the Gulf waters aren't super hot yet.    The impacts from early season storms focus more on the rain potential than the winds.    This disturbance could just drift into Mexico and not bother the U.S. at all.  Just wanted to give you a heads up in case you see "Tropical Storm Barry forms over the Southern Gulf".    It is not and should not ever be our problem, but I know strange things happen with tropical systems so we need to pay attention so we have no surprised.  I'll have an update once NHC determines what we're dealing with down over the Bay of Campeche.  Stay tuned!

Could Be Barry? Probably Not...

As NHC mentioned in their 2 pm daily outlook, satellite loops clearly show some time of spin/rotation way down in the southern Bay of Campeche, but it currently lacks any T-Storms around it.  If there is a center,(recon aircraft could go out Sunday AM) it's likely to reach the Mexican Coast during the Sunday PM.   This does not appear likely to impact the Texas Coast except to bring some unwelcomed rainfall next week.  By the end of the week, some of that tropical moisture could arrive here where we really could use the soaking.

A few heavy storms have popped up this afternoon and that should be the case for the next several days.  Coverage should stay well below the daily summer normal (40-50%) so if you get some rain, feel blessed.  Not much else happening around the states.  Stay tuned!