Barry Is Named, Moving Very Little...

Based on Recon reports, NHC upgraded the Gulf Low to Tropical Storm Barry.  Their new centerline track continues the slight shift to the east closer to us.  However, NHC points out some models now take the center northward into Mississippi while others take it to SW LA.   What does that mean?  Well, while the system appears to be getting better organized it's center remains exposed on the daylight satellite loop with no storms rotating in towards it.  The key this afternoon and tonight will be will storms start to develop around the center?  If that happens, we could see rapid intensification.  Lots of dry air and wind shear is evident on the Water Vapor loop north of Barry and that might not allow for rapid development.  RIGHT NOW, the heaviest rainfall is strung out west to east so the exact track is not as important as a well defined storm.  Places far from the center of landfall could end up receiving heavy rainfall.   The best case scenario for NOLA would be for Barry to continue to drift/move to the west for another 2 days before turning to the north,  That would take most of the heavy rains west of us along with the strongest winds.   The forward motion remains very slow (west at 5 mph) so Barry could make a turn at any time.  His center is not far away, but fortunately the heavy storms are far south of his center.   Here's what to look for this afternoon.  Watch the surface winds (currently NE) to see if they switch more to the SE which would indicate Barry will go to our west putting us on the stronger/wetter side.   IF they stay NE, or go more northerly, that would tell me Barry is heading on the model solutions that take the center to Mississippi.(unlikely)  If the winds stay ENE, that might mean the center is staying on a more westerly track.   Bottom line, confidence remains low with uncertainty staying high.  I'm hoping all that dry air and wind shear hangs around keeping Barry a minor Tropical Storm so we all wonder on Monday was all the hype necessary?  The Corps must believe so with the RFO (River Forecast Office) lowering the forecasted crest from yesterday's 20' down to 19'.  Remember, it's easy to be the Monday morning quarterback.   Stay tuned!