One thing I learned after decades tracking tropical systems is that computer models do very well predicting the well organized/developed Hurricanes, but struggle with the weaker storms & depressions. That's why I applaud the NHC for taking a tempered approach on what might become our next named storm later this week. Many bloggers are already raising the anxiety levels based on computer models even though there is nothing to track yet. Go read the NHC's latest discussion and you'll see what I mean about them taking the calm yet cautious approach. From what I'm seeing, the low level cloud swirl is still over south Georgia and will not make the Gulf until late tomorrow or Wednesday. The American model keeps it as a rather weak system moving along the MS/LA coast with some heavy rainfall Thursday & Friday. That would break our current heat wave and hopefully bring a surge of salt water back into our marshes. We saw a few PM storms today and should see about the same tomorrow with an uptick on Wednesday & Thursday. We need the rain as long as it is spread out over many hours.
I'm encouraged by the rapid fall coming down the Ohio & Mississippi rivers north of Memphis. The Army Corps of Engineers is now thinking of beginning the closing of the Spillway maybe as soon as next Monday. That is the first part of healing Lake Pontchartrain & our local marshes. I feel for all those who earn a living on the water as this prolonged opening of the Spillway has severely impacted their ability to pay their bills. Thank all of you for praying for my brother-in-laws (Nat & Jerry) and perhaps you can also include all those families impacted by the high river waters this year? There will always be someone who has it worse than you. Life is not fair.
I'll have another update tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned!
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