Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Models Shifting, Higher Impacts LA/MS?

The over night model runs have shifted the landfall center of whatever forms from yesterday's Port Arthur to this morning's run near Morgan City/Lafayette.  IF that proves correct, it would bring a heavy rain threat(3-5", 6-12" along coast) to us for Thursday-Saturday.  NHC has nothing to track yet but a shear zone has developed from the mouth of the River eastward towards Tampa Bay.   Clusters of T-Storms are exploding along this boundary and I expect this will be the area where a low pressure center will form later today or tomorrow.   Today & tomorrow will be fairly quiet here allowing everyone the opportunity to do the usual grocery store shopping ahead of a storm.   With the MJO in the favorable (rising air) phase, it would surprise me if we don't get tropical development.   Let's see if the computer models keep the consistency on this afternoon's runs.  If they do, we'll need to start to prepare for impacts later this week.  Next update will be this evening.  Stay tuned!

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