But Where is a Center?

The latest discussion from NHC National Hurricane Center) says..."a broad area of low pressure..." covers the NE Gulf.  Translation...there is no center yet and without a center (called initialization point) the computer models are only guessing on a track.  Sure there are many models (spaghetti models) being run by government & universities on Invest 92L, but they are guessing on a starting point because they is no defined center.  In fact, I find it interesting that the recon flight for tomorrow is not scheduled until the AFTERNOON.  That tells me the hurricane specialists are not expecting rapid development.  In fact, most of the models are predicting a slow moving Depression/Tropical Storm over the Gulf south of the MS/LA coast by Thursday turning to the north either Friday or Saturday placing us under the heaviest (12-18"+) rain totals through Sunday.   The Corps is forecasting a 2-3' river surge at the Carrollton gauge that could back the river up resting at near 19' on Friday.   But there is nothing there yet. Still models have been very consistent that something will form & develop.   I am amazed at the new technology that allows us to show these exceptional color graphics pinpointing the heaviest rainfall, strongest winds & coastal storm surges days in advance.    When I retired 3+ years ago, none of this was operational.   I really enjoy watching David, Bruce and crew story tell using these new graphics.  What to watch for?  Unless the models are all kaput (unlikely), expect something to develop and bring us several days of heavy rainfall beginning late Thursday into Friday & Saturday.  Some squalls could even be around into Sunday.  Right now, SE LA. is the bullseye for whatever forms.   Still plenty of time to shift path, head farther south and west before turning to the north or not fully develop at all.   Just remember, the great Flood of 2016 was caused by an unnamed tropical low that stalled