Too Soon To Worry, But...

NHC has increased the chances for tropical development in the NE Gulf from 20% yesterday to 40% this morning and now 50% this PM.  You see where they are "trending".    I've been asked several times already..."is it going to hit us?"   As I mentioned last night, there is NOTHING there yet.  What we do have is this.  1) There is an upper low over northern Mississippi dropping to the SE.  2) There is a weak low level circulation entering north Georgia NW of ATL.  The GFS model forms a weak surface low Thursday-Friday south of Panama City and quickly pulls it inland to the NE AWAY from us.  3)  The Euro takes the low near ATL and drops it southward into the NE Gulf.  Here it slowly develops the low and drifts it westward on Friday moving it inland WEST of us near Morgan City.      Those are 2 completely different scenarios.  With the GFS, NOLA gets nothing.  If the Euro proves correct, NOLA could get lots of rain (3-5")  and winds gusting to 50+ mph.   OK, you've rented a condo on the beach at Destin, what do you do?  If me, I'm staying on the beach until we really see which model has this right.  Both could be wrong with no surface low forming and most of the rainfall staying east of the beaches.   My friend Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics mentioned a similar system formed at the end of July in 1960.  It became Tropical Storm Brenda and quickly moved inland and headed away from us to the NE.    So will history repeat?   I have no "gut feeling" yet.  It appears the models are on to something so it's the usual pay attention time. If the Euro proves correct, the increased showers and rainfall would mean temperatures less hot.  Until then, we bake with basic July heat.  Stay hydrated & stay tuned!