Higher Intensity, Same Track...

Since the 10 PM update last night, NHC (National Hurricane Center) hasn't changed their forecast track at all bringing the centerline just south of Melbourne and inland between Lakeland & Orlando.  What has changed is the predicted intensity forecast, from 115 MPH (Cat. 3) last night to 130+ (Cat 4)  today.  Regardless, this will be a major Hurricane with widespread damage (especially coastal) along his path IF that forecast proves reality.  I'm somewhat confused by the uptick in intensity since the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation ) is in an unfavorable (sinking air) phase.  We'll see.   The bend in the track to the west will be caused by a blocking high to the north of Dorian with the Euro model bringing his eyewall farther to the south of the NHC centerline, while the new American (GFS) model has landfall north of the NHC centerline.   Almost all models now have a radical northward turn once Dorian moves inland and slow it down keeping it out of the Gulf.  I remember from physics class an equation regarding mass & momentum that basically says a larger mass (hurricane) with a faster forward speed is harder to turn/change course.  So what I want you to watch for during the next 2-3 days is the forward speed, currently 13 mph.  If it slows down, the greater the chance for that northward turn, which is what we want.   What you should take away from the possible forecast track above is the cone of error covers the whole state of Florida.  Translation?  the greatest danger is central Florida, but there is still great UNCERTAINTY beyond day 3.  By midday Saturday, models should be locked in on where landfall is most likely.  For those of you going to the Alabama/Florida beaches this Labor Day weekend, no need to change plans.  However, if you are supposed to go to Orlando to any of the theme parks, you will probably have to cancel as the current tracks all impact Orlando to the extent they will have to close the Parks.  Let's give it another day, but right now it doesn't look good.  Those of you with friends & relatives in Florida remember, unless they are on the coast, they have some inland elevation.  Still, if the predicted intensity verifies, 100 MPH+ gusts could go as far inland as Orlando.    Next update is at 4 pm and little should change in NHC's thinking.  I'll post later this evening.  Stay tuned!