The 2 satellite views show Dorian's eyewall at max. speed (185) with the one on top now down to 110 mph(Cat 2). It is becoming more obvious Dorian's will pass Florida's east coast with just a glancing blow with the major impacts remaining offshore. However, as he is moving away from Grand Bahama Island, the structure of the system appears to me of becoming better organized once again. It is moving over the Gulf stream and I would not be surprised to see him become a Cat. 3 later tonight or tomorrow. The danger now shifts to the Carolina coasts as Dorian's center line track will get very close to their coasts. From what I'm seeing, all Emergency Management folks have issued evacuation order and Dorian will not be a surprise. Ever since the initial model errors, they have been doing very well predicting a slow down, a stall and then a turn to the north. That allowed NHC to not have to OVERWARN hundreds of miles of coastline like they always had to do in past years. The Carolina coasts will be battered the next 2 days with wind & storm surge. They will be the ones that'll need our prayers along with the northern Bahamas.
Shifting back to the Gulf, Tropical Storm Fernand developed this afternoon, but it will move into Mexico south of Brownsville as a tropical storm. We have a large upper high building in from the Rockies that will block Fernand from coming our way. The bad news is that high will be baking us with near record heat for the rest of this week. There are other systems way out in the Atlantic, but the focus this week continues to be Dorian. I may update later tonight after the 10 pm advisory comes out. Stay tuned!
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