Monday, September 2, 2019

Dorian Remains Stalled...



One of the features anyone can do now is speed up the animation rate on satellite loops.  I always did that because it allows you to see forward motion easier.  If you do that tonight you clearly see Dorian isn't moving with the eye just north of Grand Bahama Island.  They have been battered now for over 24 hours and I fear the death toll could be in the hundreds.   There have been changes since last night as seen on the 2 satellite pics above.  Last night Dorian was a classic donut shape while tonight it's become somewhat lopsided on the NW side.  That's because drier air and wind shear are on that side of the storm and any northward motion should mean further weakening.  Max winds have fallen from 185 mph down to 130 mph, still a major hurricane.  The new  10 pm NHC centerline track is slightly shifted to the east meaning the brunt of Dorian will stay off the U.S. East Coast unless there is a shift to the west.  That is not likely since an upper trough is approaching that should start a NNW movement overnight and accelerating Dorian to the NE off the Carolina coast by Thursday.  It can't happen soon enough for many who I know are suffering from hurricane coverage fatigue.   I know how difficult it is covering a storm threat that last 3-5 days.  Total exhaustion...fried brain cells!

There is a cluster of storms getting better organized in the west central Gulf, but this system is heading to the SW AWAY from us.  In fact our local weather will remain dry & very hot for the rest of this week.  Several other systems are out in the Tropics, but all should remain far away.  We will get through the first week in September  without a tropical threat.  Stay tuned!

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