We were hoping this afternoon's Recon Flight into our tropical disturbance would reveal some new information, but that is not the case. Sure they found a broad closed circulation, but they could not find any winds above 30-35 mph. Tonight's satellite loop still shows clusters of disorganized storms, but nothing that indicates rapid development. So it was not surprising NHC didn't change their forecast thinking leaving just about everything the same except for slightly slower motion.
Their centerline track forecast remains the same with landfall along Florida's east coast before recurving back offshore early next week. Something to ponder tonight...models do not do well with weak ill-defined systems so let's not jump onto these early forecast tracks & cones. RIGHT NOW, it appears this will not be a Gulf threat and there is nothing I can see that would change that. In fact, from what I see, I favor the track shifting farther to the east missing Florida entirely much like Dorian. What I would like to see is some cold fronts pushing our way that would block any motion to the west. Alas, no fronts are likely for the next 10 days at the soonest. Which means, we will stay very hot and mostly dry into next week. If you have plans for the beaches this weekend, you look OK. Going to Disneyworld? Keep up with the latest forecasts, but this is not like Dorian. At worst it could become a strong Tropical Storm or weak hurricane with most impacts east of the Florida coast. I'll have another update before noon on Friday. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment