We're well into Fall but have been setting daily high temperatures for many weeks (95 today!). Typically we see our first real cold front by late September or early in October. That will not happen this year as our summer drags on through this weekend. A weak frontal boundary could bring us slight relief this weekend with a few showers, but the REAL front should arrive late on Monday into Tuesday. Then another stronger front arrives for late next week. As I mentioned, it must get cold up north first before it gets here. That is finally happening as the northern tier of states are in the 30s & 40s.
With these fronts coming, I have placed a call into "the Fat Lady" for her to come sing possibly as soon as next weekend. Does that mean we're done with all tropical threats? No, but it looks like we are beyond the "evacuation type" (Cat.3+) storm threats. An upper low is over the western Gulf creating lots of wind shear while a weak low level rotation is west of Cuba heading just north of the Yucatan. NHC still gives that area a low (20%) chance for development.
I think it's more likely that low pressure could form along one of these fronts over the next 2-3 weeks taking the threat towards Florida and not the northern Gulf. We'll see. Stay tuned!
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