Cold Front Plus Surging Tropical Moisture = Heavy Rain Threat.

NHC has increased the chances for development over the southern Gulf from 60 to 70%.  It is getting very likely that they will name the next storm (Olga) on Friday.  She will be either a "sub-tropical (cold core or "tropical" (warm core) Storm. 

 

The main threat for SE LA/MS will be heavy rainfall as models are predicting widespread 3-5"+.

 

Since water temps over the northern Gulf have cooled into the 70s and SW wind shear remains moderate,  Olga will not be the kind of threat a late August or September storm would be.  Still, with NOLA's pumping issues, any heavy rain event becomes a concern.   I'd pay attention to the weather on Friday in case a "training effect" sets up causing the rain rates to exceed pumping capacity.  There is plenty of cold air behind this front, but the core of the cold will stay to our north.   Our focus should be on the rain for Friday into early Saturday.  I'm going to the LSU/Auburn game Saturday afternoon and I'm hoping it'll be dry by then?  Stay tuned!