Friday, October 18, 2019

Nestor Finally Named...

Newly named Tropical Storm Nestor is a classic example why late season storms rarely come our way (westerly wind shear) and stay to our south and east.  That's why "The Fat Lady" was singing around Oct. 10th..."turn out the lights, the party is over".    Based on satellite loops and recon reports, NHC finally named this system even though wind speeds were high enough (40+ mph) last night.  Here's what I'm seeing on Satellite Pics.


Nestor is totally lopsided on his eastern side and the main T-Storms are well east of the center.  (Note arrows).  I would not be surprised to see later today for NHC to relocate the center farther to the east bringing the main impacts into central Florida instead of the Panhandle.   RIGHT NOW, the official centerline NHC track has shifted back to the east of Panama City heading over Mexico Beach (not again!).  However, as I mentioned it appears the main impacts will be east of that recovering beach community.  

Watching The Weather Channel's reporter in Panama City Beach, there were NO WAVES, which tells me they have offshore winds and the center is heading way farther to the east.   Let's see if that trending shift to the east of the centerline track continues.    That would mean the main impacts (storm surge, heavy rains, high winds) will be from Clearwater Beach northward to the Big Bend area with very little over the Florida Panhandle beaches.  One thing for sure, this storm is not a NOLA problem except for areas outside the levee protection. (higher tides)
On Nestor's backside, we're enjoying comfy cool temps in the 60s.  With clearing skies coming for Saturday and Sunday, look for temps to rebound to near 80, but the humidity will remain low giving us a delight feeling weather weekend.  I may update later if new information warrants.  Stay tuned!

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