No Nestor Yet...

I know the disturbed weather over the Gulf isn't developing tonight because The Weather Channel is still airing regular programming (Storm Stories).  Satellite pics continue to show clusters of disorganized T-Storms and NHC says Recon could not find a low level tight center, but rather a very broad area of low pressure.

This system is fighting dry air to the west, cooler air to the north and strong SW wind shear over most of the Gulf due to an upper low west of Houston.

Trying to track a center that isn't there makes me feel NHC is going by persistence.  They have shifted their centerline track about 20 miles farther to the west now having landfall just west of Panama City.  

Unless there is a dramatic shift closer to us, the only impacts I see are higher tides and some wind gusts to 30+ along the coast.   If you get up and it's raining in the morning, that would tell me 1) the system has not gotten stronger and 2) whatever center it has will be getting closer.   Regardless, this disturbance will be racing by tomorrow and far away from us for this weekend.   If it is not raining in the morning, then I don't think we'll see any rain except for coastal locations.  With so much going against it, Nestor (if named?) will not last very long and his impacts will not be severe.  He will be no more than just a Friday & Saturday inconvenience for the Florida beaches.  Stay tuned!