Where Has All The Cold Air Gone?

Had to believe we are almost through 2/3 of Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) and we have yet to see freezing temperatures across most of the South Shore.  But it's not just the South that has been mild.

Look up to Montana (40s) or Denver, St. Louis, Chicago & New York City, they all are above freezing with no snow on the ground.   So where is all the cold?   It's been trapped up over Alaska & Northern Canada unable to plunge into the lower 48 except for a few brief periods that don't last very long.   The exception has been over the Western states where their Winter has been quite chilly and snowy at higher elevation.  We were told by the AGW crowd that more weather extremes (Polar Vortex) will happen in a warming Planet.  But this Winter season has seen only one or two brief Arctic blasts that last several days and they retreat back northward.

The Super Cold (35-45 below zero) is still up there and some of it will spill southward during the second week of February. However, it seems every time a model has a digging trough over the east that would bring the cold southward, the next run of two changes back to the western trough and eastern ridge.   The only reason we haven't been super warm is the active southern storm track has kept us cloudy and wet.

If we could only break through the clouds and see some sunshine, our temps would jump back to 70+.  Thursday looks to be more cloudy than sunny, more cool than warm.  Friday has another fast moving upper system fly by bring back clouds and some showers, before the weekend turns mild & dry.  A stronger system comes next week late Tuesday into Wednesday with 75-80 likely ahead of the front and a significant cool down behind it.  But right now there are no signs of the real Arctic air coming to us during the next 10-14 days.   Finally, the Mississippi River at the Carrollton gage has reached 16 feet and will be cresting this weekend.   Fortunately,  there has not been any heavy rainfall over the Ohio & Mississippi River basins to our north and river levels should get back below 12 feet within 2 weeks.  Stay tuned!