Arthur is knocking, but It's Still TD # 1...

With the start of our Hurricane season over 2 weeks away, it appears for the 6th straight year a named storm will happen before June 1st.  Recon aircraft found a well defined circulation this afternoon and NHC calls it Tropical Depression # 1.   It will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur later tonight or on Sunday and it will give the North Carolina coast a blow where a Tropical Storm Watch is up.

An improvement to the NHC web site is the "key messages" graphics.   If you are in a hurry and can't wade through all the graphics, the Key Messages are like "bullet points" highlighting the most important information.   If you haven't clicked on it yet, give it a try.

Obviously the satellite and radar presentations have indicated a much better circulation east of Florida.   The forecast brings this system to a 60 mph storm before it turns out to sea...IF it makes the turn.  Not all models are doing that with several bringing it back to the NW.  He's not our problem, but it's a signal that we have reached that time of the year most of us dread.

We remain in a very juicy air mass with dew points in the 70s.That means we'll still have the threat for more heavy rains until a weak front brings down some drier air for Monday through Thursday of next week.

There is a cluster of storms down over the Gulf that should stay off shore over night.  There are 2 upper swirls heading our way with the first over east Texas and the 2nd up over South Dakota.

Computer models are bringing them together to form a "cut off low" centered over the eastern states and that should help a weak front to stagger into the Gulf late on Monday.  Drier air will mean slightly cooler night time lows, and that will feel nice.   Finally...

This scary headline was in the USA Today newspaper.   If you read the article, it stated that MOST viruses (measles, mumps, chicken pox, etc.) last forever.  We know that because there are some who won't let their children get vaccinations and those diseases flair up again 50 years after the vaccine was invented.  So what?  The point of the above headline was to strike fear and not to inform the public  Now some of the critics regarding my wearing mask post earlier this week criticized the news media for overhyping  Covid-19.    In this case I agree with them.   The media has the responsibility to give us facts, not fear.  

And the facts are shields and masks PLUS physical distancing slow down the spread of the virus.  I wear mine for you, but I also feel safer for me too.  Stay tuned!