Could We Have Arthur Today?

This morning's satellite loops clearly show a much better low level circulation developing off the SE coast of Florida.

 

Currently this system is very lopsided with most of the showers & storms on the eastern side.  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating and we will know later this afternoon if a depression has formed or NHC makes it Tropical Storm Arthur.  Yesterday's model runs took whatever formed off the Carolina coast.

The top photo is the GFS ensembles with many turning back towards the coast.  Even some of the Euro's turn back to the west.    This is not going to be our concern, but our friends along the East Coast need to pay attention.

Our concerns are focused on an upper air system over east Texas.  It is weakening but we're on the wet side so expect more showers and storms to develop today.  After the recent heavy rainfall, it wouldn't take much to start some street flooding so let's keep up on our weather today and Sunday.  Another cold front will sweep away the humidity for next week.  I'll post again later this afternoon. Stay tuned!