NHC Consistently Consistent...

Yesterday I mentioned how the computer models have been honed in on Louisiana as the bullseye for Cristobal's landfall.   I don't ever recall how day after day (5 days now) models did not show some flip-flopping, but with Cristobal, there has been no changes.  Satellite loops now show the center of Cristobal moving rapidly (N at 12 mph) off the northern coast of the Yucatan into the southern Gulf.

He clearly is a lop-sided system with the heaviest impacts on the eastern side as dry air over the western Gulf is restricting any storms on his left side.   Models are all focused on the Louisiana coast and NHC's official centerline track remains near Morgan City.   Since Cristobal is so asymmetric, that centerline path will be critical to follow.  IF it remains to our west, SE LA/MS will have the greatest impacts which, right now, call for 5-10" of rain with winds 30-50 mph with higher gusts.  If the track shifts closer, the winds would be on the higher end.  Regardless, one cannot ignore the consistent performance of ALL the computer models.   Usually there are several "outliers" , but not with Cristobal.   If there is going to be any major changes, it will have to happen during the next 24-36 hours.  The good news with this system is the atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not very good for development.   At worse, Cristobal could become a weak end Cat. 1 hurricane or a strong high end Tropical Storm.  Our levee protection system should be able to easily handle this storm.  Areas outside that protection can expect 3-5 feet of storm surge.   I'm hoping Cristobal's fast forward motion continues as that would limit the rainfall totals.  The next update is out at 4 PM.

The top graphic is the NHC forecast track with the total expected rainfall on the next 2 followed by the arrival time for stronger winds and lastly, the centerline track right over Morgan City.   The best scenario for NOLA would be for the centerline to shift to the right(east) along the eastern boundary of the cone.   We then would be on the weaker side of the storm with the heavier impacts moving to Mississippi & Alabama.  A westward shift would mean lesser impacts for MS & AL.   Based on the current direction & speed, Sunday will be our windy & rainy day.  I'll post again after the next update. Stay tuned!